Beyond the Gulf: How the Iran War Is Fueling Crisis in the Horn of Africa

Why It Matters

The war’s ripple effects jeopardize food security for millions in the Horn of Africa, demanding urgent policy and aid interventions before the next harvest fails.

Key Takeaways

• Iran war spikes fuel, fertilizer prices across Horn of Africa.
• Sudan fuel up 67%; Somalia fuel up 150%, crushing budgets.
• Fertilizer shortages cut planting decisions, risking 2026‑27 harvests.
• Humanitarian cash transfers lose ~50% purchasing power amid crises.
• Disrupted shipping through Strait of Hormuz threatens food aid deliveries.

Summary

The CSIS panel examined how the two‑month‑old Iran‑Israel conflict is reverberating far beyond the Gulf, turning the Red Sea into a new front of a globalized crisis. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf fertilizer and LNG facilities have driven up energy and input costs, sending shockwaves through fuel, fertilizer and food markets across Sudan, Somalia and the broader Horn of Africa.

Panelists highlighted stark data: fuel prices have risen 67% in Sudan and a staggering 150% in Somalia; fertilizer costs have spiked, forcing farmers to cut seed and input use during the critical planting season. Mercy Corps’ field research shows cash‑transfer programs have lost roughly half their purchasing power, while transport fees now exceed the value of some cargoes, making food movement commercially unviable.

"The window to limit the next wave of hunger is measured in weeks, not months," warned Mercy Corps regional VP Malaku Jurga, echoing Kate Phillips Baraso’s observation that price spikes will echo for years through reduced yields and nutrition deficits. Caitlyn Welsh added that Gulf nations supply 50% of global sulfur and 20% of LNG, so any disruption instantly inflates global food prices.

The combined effect threatens to push millions deeper into acute food insecurity, potentially sparking new famines by 2026‑27. Immediate coordination of humanitarian aid, diversified supply routes and accelerated financing are essential to prevent a full‑scale humanitarian disaster in a region already stretched by conflict, climate shocks and economic fragility.

Original Description

Disruptions to commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as a result of the Iran War have triggered fuel and fertilizer price shocks that are being felt globally. These disruptions arrive at a critical juncture in the Horn of Africa, a region that is contending with conflict, displacement, and successive climate shocks.

Please join the CSIS Africa Program for a panel discussion on the humanitarian and geopolitical effects of the Iran war on the Horn of Africa. Drawing on findings from Mercy Corps' report From Hormuz to the Frontlines of Hunger, panelists will assess how fuel and fertilizer price shocks are compounding pre-existing crises and examine broader implications of the Iran war in the Horn region.

This event is made possible with support from the CSIS Strategic Initiatives Fund.

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