"Big Drop" In Jobless Claims, "Big Jump" In Trade Deficit
•February 19, 2026
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Why It Matters
Stronger labor data and persistent inflationary risks make near-term Fed easing less likely, supporting higher yields and a stronger dollar, while a wider trade deficit and rising oil prices add downside risks to growth and market volatility.
Summary
Initial economic readings surprised to the upside: weekly jobless claims fell sharply to 206,000 (four-week average 219,000), aligning with a 4.3% unemployment print, while the Philly Fed index jumped to 16.3 versus expectations near 7.5. At the same time the U.S. trade deficit widened markedly to $70.3 billion from $56.8 billion, and oil climbed—adding a risk premium amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. Fed minutes showed policymakers divided, with the central bank largely adopting a wait-and-see stance and markets largely pricing out a rate cut before June.
Original Description
Kevin Hincks, reporting from the @CboeGlobalMarkets, breaks down the latest snapshot of the labor market with this week's jobless claims. He adds commentary on International Trade in Goods and Services as well as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Kevin has his eyes on the commodity space, with crude oil on his radar amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. He believes the energy markets should continue to be watched closely as crude oil has risen more than 5% this week.
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