Blavatnik Book Talk: How To Win a Trade War – A Friendly Guide to an Unfriendly World

Why It Matters

Understanding and countering China‑driven supply‑chain asymmetries is essential for safeguarding economic security and maintaining competitive advantage in a world where trade wars are unavoidable.

Key Takeaways

• Trade wars are inevitable; focus on defending national interests.
• China’s “dual circulation” creates asymmetric supply‑chain dependencies for global markets.
• Governments now map vulnerabilities using detailed data on critical minerals.
• Winning requires leveraging strengths, not merely avoiding trade conflict.
• The book offers a pragmatic playbook for policymakers confronting coercive trade.

Summary

The event introduced "How to Win a Trade War," a new book by trade‑policy veterans Samir Keynes and Chad P. Jones. It argues that the era of avoiding trade disputes is over, and policymakers must now learn to fight strategically, especially against China’s emerging “dual circulation” model that seeks to dominate supply chains while reducing its own imports.

The authors stress that while traditional economics views trade wars as zero‑sum, the reality is a world where coercive measures are already being deployed. China’s push for self‑sufficiency, massive market‑share targets in semiconductors, robotics and rare‑earths, and its export controls on magnets illustrate an asymmetric system that threatens global interdependence. Recent government efforts—spanning the Obama, Biden and current administrations—have focused on data‑driven mapping of critical‑material dependencies, revealing that roughly 90% of rare‑earths and permanent magnets are sourced from China.

Illustrative anecdotes include a 2011 White House memo assessing Fukushima’s supply‑chain shock to U.S. auto production, and the pandemic‑era scramble for semiconductors and PPE. These stories underscore how limited data once hampered response, prompting today’s sophisticated vulnerability assessments that expose hidden choke points and the need for counter‑strategies.

The book’s practical framework urges nations to identify their own strengths, diversify inputs, and develop retaliatory tools rather than merely seeking multilateral cooperation. For businesses and governments alike, the guide offers actionable steps to mitigate coercion, protect critical industries, and navigate an increasingly hostile trade environment.

Original Description

We used to take trade for granted. Trillions of dollars of goods and services crossed borders each year. Nobody paid too much attention: it just worked.

Now, surging oil prices can hit your mortgage. Trump’s latest tariff announcement can crash markets and ruin your pension. Brexit can sever Britain from its closest trading partners. Chinese restrictions can bring the West’s car production to a crashing halt. Curbs on trade in cutting-edge chips could determine who wins the AI race. The stakes couldn't be higher.

Join authors Soumaya Keynes and Chad Bown, in conversation with Professor Emily Jones, as they discuss their new book How To Win a Trade War: A Friendly Guide to an Unfriendly World.

Blavatnik School of Government,

University of Oxford

http://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/