Can India Keep Its Balance in West Asia?

Why It Matters

India’s ability to navigate West Asian rivalries directly impacts its energy supply, trade growth, and defense procurement, shaping the country’s broader economic and strategic trajectory.

Key Takeaways

• India's Gulf ties now driven by investment, not just labor.
• India treats UAE, Saudi, Israel, Iran as separate strategic poles.
• Energy security remains top priority amid Iran‑Israel‑US tensions.
• Non‑alignment policy lets India avoid taking sides in regional conflicts.
• Diversifying oil imports reduces risk but complicates US relations.

Summary

The podcast examines how India is trying to keep a delicate balance in West Asia as geopolitical tensions rise. Over the past decade New Delhi has moved from a historically labor‑focused relationship with the Gulf to a broader economic partnership, with the Modi government courting the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran as distinct strategic poles. Key insights include India’s shift toward geoeconomic engagement—so‑called “investment opportunity” for Gulf sovereign wealth funds, a target of $200 billion in trade by 2030, and a focus on energy security, which accounts for 86 % of its hydrocarbon imports. The country’s foreign ministry groups Iran with Pakistan and Afghanistan, underscoring security concerns, while Israel is prized for high‑end defense technology, and the UAE enjoys frequent prime‑ministerial visits. Notable examples cited are the Shabahar port project, the $100 billion India‑UAE trade baseline, and India’s non‑aligned stance that avoids taking sides in regional wars despite deepening ties. Kabir Tanjur emphasizes that India’s diaspora of roughly nine million workers adds a humanitarian dimension to its diplomatic calculus. The implications are clear: India must diversify energy supplies, protect its diaspora, and maintain strategic autonomy without alienating the United States, all while leveraging Gulf capital for domestic growth and securing defense partnerships that sustain its security architecture.

Original Description

For more than a decade, India has steadily deepened its ties with the Gulf while trying to balance competing interests across the region. But today, that strategy is under strain—thanks to the Iran conflict, shifting regional alignments, a reemerging Pakistan.

How is India being impacted by the Iran crisis? And what do these geopolitical shifts mean for India’s West Asia policy?

To discuss these and other questions, Milan is joined on the show this week by Kabir Taneja. Kabir is the Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation’s Middle East office. He has worked extensively on India’s relations with the Middle East, examining domestic political dynamics, terrorism, non-state militant actors, and the region’s evolving security architecture. He is also the author of The ISIS Peril: The World’s Most Feared Terror Group and Its Shadow on South Asia.

Milan and Kabir discuss India’s emerging political and strategic relationships in the Gulf, the risks the country faces from the Iran conflict, and the potential for India to play a larger regional security role in the Middle East. Plus, the two discuss Pakistan’s frenetic diplomatic maneuvering and the state of Afghanistan-India ties.

Episode notes:

1. Kabir Taneja, “Pak Is Finally Back In Middle East's 'Good Books'. But Can It Stay There?” NDTV, April 30, 2026.

2. Kabir Taneja, “How Air Power will Reshape Geopolitics in the Gulf,” ORF Middle East, April 17, 2026.

3. Kabir Taneja, “A West Asia security rethink amid America’s role,” Hindu, April 2, 2026.

4. Kabir Taneja, “Reading the tea leaves in the conflict in West Asia,” Hindustan Times, March 10, 2026.

5. Kabir Taneja, “Navigating Strategic Autonomy: India and the Middle East in a Multipolar World,” February 9, 2026.

6. Nicolas Blarel, “India Navigates a Divided Middle East,” in Milan Vaishnav, ed. India and a Changing Global Order: Foreign Policy in the Trump 2.0 Era (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2026).

7. Kabir Taneja, “Between New Delhi & Kabul, a fine balance,” Hindustan Times, October 13, 2025.

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