Cuba on the Brink, With Michael Bustamante
•February 25, 2026
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Why It Matters
The sanctions reshaped Cuba’s economic landscape and tested U.S. diplomatic leverage in the Western Hemisphere, influencing future policy choices across the region.
Key Takeaways
- •Trump’s “maximum pressure” cut travel and remittances
- •Cuban tourism fell 70% after policy enforcement
- •U.S. businesses lost $1.2 billion in Cuban trade
- •Opposition groups leveraged sanctions to demand reforms
- •Policy may backfire, strengthening hardliners in Havana
Pulse Analysis
The Trump administration’s maximum‑pressure approach marked a stark departure from the Obama‑era engagement policy, reinstating a suite of economic levers aimed at compelling democratic change in Havana. By re‑imposing travel bans, slashing remittance flows, and tightening export controls, Washington sought to isolate the island’s elite and erode the regime’s fiscal base. While the strategy resonated with domestic political constituencies demanding a tougher stance on authoritarianism, it also disrupted long‑standing people‑to‑people ties that had underpinned modest economic liberalization.
The immediate fallout was severe for Cuba’s already fragile economy. Tourism, a lifeline accounting for roughly 15 percent of GDP, collapsed by an estimated 70 percent, sending hotel occupancy rates to historic lows. Simultaneously, the curtailment of remittances—vital cash inflows for Cuban households—exacerbated shortages of basic goods and heightened public discontent. U.S. firms, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, reported combined losses exceeding $1.2 billion, underscoring the reciprocal costs of punitive sanctions. Yet, the pressure also created openings for opposition groups, who framed the hardships as evidence of the regime’s unsustainability and called for accelerated reforms.
Looking ahead, the Biden administration faces a delicate balancing act. Reversing or recalibrating sanctions could restore economic channels and improve U.S. standing among Latin American allies, but premature easing might embolden hardliners resistant to change. Analysts suggest a calibrated approach—targeted relief for humanitarian needs coupled with conditional incentives for democratic progress—could mitigate the backlash while preserving leverage. The episode’s insights underscore that U.S. policy toward Cuba remains a litmus test for broader American influence in the region, where economic tools must be wielded alongside diplomatic engagement to achieve lasting impact.
Original Description
Michael Bustamante, Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign against Cuba.
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Cuba on the Brink, With Michael Bustamante - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/cuba-on-the-brink
The President’s Inbox - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox
Host
Jim Lindsay
Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR
Episode Guests
Michael Bustamante
Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami
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