Featured Speaker Seminar with Ralph De Haas: How Will Aging Populations Reshape the Global Economy?

Why It Matters

Aging demographics threaten to erode global growth and fiscal stability, making coordinated policy action essential for sustaining economic prosperity.

Key Takeaways

• Global aging reduces labor force, dragging per‑capita GDP growth.
• Fertility rates fell below replacement in two‑thirds of countries.
• Migration can offset workforce shrinkage but faces political resistance.
• Advanced economies experience nonlinear aging due to longevity gains.
• No single solution; policy mix needed to sustain economic output.

Summary

Professor Ralph De Haas, director of research at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, presented the 2025‑26 “Brave Old World” report, examining how rapidly aging populations will reshape the global economy. He highlighted the shift from a demographic dividend to a demographic burden as median ages in advanced economies have risen from around 30 to over 45 since 1950, while many developing regions remain youthful. The report shows fertility rates now below the 2.1 replacement level in two‑thirds of countries, creating a mechanical head‑wind that could shave roughly four percentage points off annual GDP growth by 2050. Case studies of Korea and Japan illustrate how shrinking workforces depress per‑capita output, and the data suggest that without intervention, older societies will become less innovative and productive. De Haas emphasized that migration offers a partial remedy: guest‑worker schemes or full naturalization can replenish labor, but the scale required—e.g., an additional 5 % migration inflow for Korea—exceeds recent historical trends and faces strong public resistance. He also noted that longevity gains in places like Japan produce nonlinear aging patterns, complicating policy responses. The overarching implication is that no single tool will suffice. Policymakers must blend migration, automation, education, and pension reforms to mitigate the economic drag of aging, or risk prolonged stagnation and fiscal strain.

Original Description

How will ageing populations and shifting demographics reshape the global economy?

Join ADBI for a special Featured Speaker Series event with Ralph De Haas, Director of Research at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as he presents insights from the Brave Old World: Transition Report 2025–26.