The conflict risks a sustained energy shock that would drive inflation, raise borrowing costs and depress growth worldwide, forcing governments and central banks into difficult fiscal and monetary choices and threatening higher consumer prices and disrupted global supply chains.
Air strikes and missile attacks tied to the war on Iran have struck military and energy infrastructure across the Middle East—from drone and military bases in Iran to refineries in Bahrain, shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes into Lebanon, Israel and Gulf states—with NATO air defenses even intercepting an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkey. The violence prompted a dramatic one-day oil surge toward $120 a barrel, widespread market volatility that wiped roughly $6 trillion off global equity values, and disruptions to fertilizers, palm oil and jet fuel supplies. Emergency talks by G7 finance ministers and a potential release from strategic petroleum reserves helped calm markets, but strikes, shoot-downs and naval deployments continue to escalate. UK officials warned of higher inflation, borrowing costs and consumer energy bills, while global policymakers weigh measures to stabilize supply and limit economic fallout.
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