How to Win a Trade War | LSE Event

Why It Matters

In an era where China’s self‑sufficiency threatens global supply chains, understanding and mitigating economic vulnerabilities is essential for preserving national security and competitive advantage.

Key Takeaways

• Trade wars are inevitable; nations must learn to fight them.
• China's "dual circulation" aims for global dependency, not reciprocity.
• Identifying supply-chain vulnerabilities is crucial for economic defense.
• Subsidies, stockpiling, and alliances can mitigate weaponized dependencies.
• Winning a trade war means minimizing losses, not increasing wealth.

Summary

The London School of Economics event launched the new book How to Win a Trade War, authored by podcast hosts Chad and Samaya, with introductions from Swathi Dhingra, Martin Wolf and Stephanie Prickard. The discussion framed the current geopolitical climate—Brexit, Trump’s tariff crusade, and especially China’s assertive “dual circulation” strategy—as a reality where avoiding a trade conflict is no longer viable.

The speakers argued that traditional, rules‑based WTO mechanisms are insufficient against a China that seeks global supply‑chain dependence while remaining self‑sufficient. They highlighted the need to map and quantify vulnerabilities, as illustrated by Swathi’s 2011 Fukushima memo and the pandemic‑induced shortages of chips and PPE. The book proposes a pragmatic playbook: identify weak points, deploy targeted subsidies, build strategic stockpiles, and coordinate with allies to counteract economic coercion.

Memorable moments included Swathi’s anecdote about writing a memo to the President with “we don’t know” as the answer, and Samaya’s description of the book as a “map” for navigating economic conflict. The authors stress that winning does not mean richer outcomes but rather limiting damage and preserving strategic strengths.

For policymakers and corporate leaders, the takeaway is clear: shift from passive reliance on multilateral rules to an active, data‑driven defence of supply chains, leveraging subsidies, stockpiling, and coalition‑building to safeguard against weaponized interdependence.

Original Description

Join us for this public event in which our speakers discuss their new book, How to Win a Trade War.

In their talk they will explore the history, players, and rules of trade, asking how we prepare for what the future might hold. Could trade wars lead to hot wars? What can the West learn from China?

Speakers:

Dr Chad P Bown

Soumaya Keynes

Professor Stephanie Rickard

Martin Wolf

Chair:

Swati Dhingra

#Trade #Events #London

Full details/attend: https://www.lse.ac.uk/events/trade-1

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