In the Company of Mavericks: Small Ships, Big Oceans and the World on Fire with Ami Daniel

Why It Matters

The prolonged Gulf oil disruption forces investors to rethink energy exposure and pivot toward defense, AI, and data‑intelligence assets amid a rapidly realigning geopolitical landscape.

Key Takeaways

• Middle East oil shock reshapes global energy markets, no quick fix
• Strategic reserves provide only short‑term relief amid supply cuts
• Geopolitical tensions shift power balance, affecting US, China, NATO
• Israeli market outperforms despite regional risk, shekel strengthens
• Defense tech and AI investment surge as geopolitical uncertainty rises

Summary

The podcast with Windward founder Ammy Daniel centers on the cascading effects of the latest Middle East oil shock, emphasizing that the loss of roughly 80 million barrels per day cannot be remedied quickly and is reshaping the global energy order.

Daniel quantifies the supply disruption, noting that 20% of world oil and a similar share of gas originate from the Gulf, and explains why strategic petroleum reserves—about 400 million barrels—offer only a five‑day buffer. He contrasts this with the Russia‑Ukraine sanctions, where price caps kept oil flowing, underscoring the uniqueness of the current crisis.

He highlights divergent market reactions: Israel’s equity market is the world’s top performer, with a strong shekel, while the UAE’s real‑estate index has plunged 50%. Defense technology and AI spending are accelerating as nations scramble for new capabilities, and the Abraham Accords may forge a new regional axis.

For investors, the takeaway is clear: re‑price exposure to Middle East energy, consider defense and data‑intelligence firms, and monitor shifting alliances—especially US‑NATO commitments and China‑Taiwan flashpoints—as they will dictate capital flows in the coming years.

Original Description

Ami Daniel on the Middle East energy shock, the death of cheap intelligence, and why the SaaS apocalypse is your opportunity

Ami Daniel, founder of maritime AI company Windward, returns to the pod with a front-row view of the Middle East energy shock — and a confession about the one big thing he got completely wrong about AI.

With US naval pressure tightening around Iranian ports and ships going dark in the Strait of Hormuz, Ami explains why this energy crisis has no quick fix: 20% of the world's oil and gas cannot simply be rerouted. He maps the geopolitical reshaping of the Middle East, why Israeli and UAE capital markets are telling a different story to the headlines, and why the Abraham Accord alliance may become the defining axis of the region for the next two decades.

Then the conversation shifts to AI and investing. Ami's big admission: he thought data would be commoditised and insight would be scarce. He had it exactly backwards. Insight is now effectively free — you can get PhD-level analysis on an API. Data is the scarce resource. That one inversion is eating the entire SaaS industry alive.

But Ami argues the SaaS collapse is a buying opportunity for patient investors — if you know what to look for. Proprietary data moats. High average order values. Strong net revenue retention. And it's also a good idea to look for wartime CEOs who have navigated real adversity before the good times arrived.

We also get into Windward's own journey — why leaving the London Stock Exchange wasn't a vote against the UK market, why he's now backing a company to list there, and what it means to steer a business through years of people thinking you're wrong.

Five takeaways:

The Middle East energy shock is structural — there is no easy fix

The region is being geopolitically reshaped, and capital markets are repricing it

Defensible data moats are the new scarce resource in an AI world

The SaaS collapse is a patient investor's opportunity

Back wartime CEOs — people who kept going when nobody believed in them

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.

Links mentioned in this episode:

Windward insights: https://insights.windward.ai

Ami Daniel on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amidaniel

Windward on X: @WindwardAI

Ami Daniel on X: @AmidanielOne

Orlando Bravo / Thoma Bravo—software is a buying opportunity (CNBC): https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/tech-investor-orlando-bravo-software-ai.html

Ben Horowitz — Peacetime CEO / Wartime CEO: https://a16z.com/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/

Previous episode with Ami (September 2024): https://substack.com/@jeremymckeown/p-148564789

HyperNormal Times: https://jeremymckeown.substack.com