MGI Event: Book Authors Discuss How to Achieve the Next Century of Plenty

Why It Matters

The analysis shows that achieving a Swiss‑level of prosperity globally hinges on expanding clean energy and reinforcing the eight growth drivers, offering a data‑backed roadmap for businesses and governments aiming to capture the next century of economic abundance.

Key Takeaways

• MGI’s new book maps 100‑year progress and future outlook.
• Eight interlocking drivers—workers, skills, investment, invention, energy, cities, trade, markets—fuel growth.
• Energy consumption rises with income; clean expansion essential for a plentiful future.
• Convergence scenario projects global GDP reaching $1.3‑1.4 quadrillion by 2100.
• Authors stress fact‑based analysis over nostalgia, addressing inequality and climate limits.

Summary

The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) virtual event introduced its latest publication, *A Century of Plenty*, which chronicles a hundred years of human progress and projects the next 75‑year trajectory of wealth and well‑being. The authors—Chris Bradley, Janet Bush, Mark Canel, Nick Leong and a team of 25—frame the narrative around eight interlocking engines of growth: workers, skills, investment, invention, energy, cities, trade and markets, each illustrated with striking data points from the past century.

Key insights include a nine‑fold rise in industrial and non‑farm workforces, a shift to two‑thirds cognitive labor, nine‑times more capital per worker, 50 million patents, ten‑fold higher energy use, urbanization climbing from 20 % to nearly 60 %, trade tripling, and Fortune‑500 revenues now accounting for two‑thirds of U.S. GDP. The authors argue that energy consumption scales with per‑capita income, underscoring the need for massive clean‑energy expansion to sustain future prosperity.

Notable moments feature a reminder of “nostalgia bias” when the speaker’s daughter critiques romanticizing the past, the Swiss benchmark as a universal standard of safety and trust, and a projection of a $1.3‑1.4 quadrillion global economy by 2100 if convergence continues. The discussion also tackles criticism of growth—urban squalor, climate impact, inequality—by presenting fact‑based counterpoints and highlighting how past advances have mitigated earlier externalities.

The implications are clear: policymakers and business leaders must prioritize clean‑energy scaling, invest in human capital, and nurture market mechanisms to replicate the Swiss‑level of prosperity worldwide. If the outlined convergence holds, the next century could see unprecedented economic size and shared well‑being, reshaping strategic planning across sectors.

Original Description

After an unprecedented—but bumpy—century of progress, the project of economic empowerment is about half done. The book explores what it would take to finish the job and what a future of shared prosperity could look like by 2100. Achieving this would require global GDP to be about 8.5 times higher than it is today. Will we have enough energy, materials, food, and innovation?

Drawing on decades of MGI research, the authors show that there is enough energy and sufficient minerals and metals to power growth and prosperity while protecting the planet; that we can comfortably grow food even for a population of 12 billion without using more land, and that there is plenty of juice left in the innovation machine. We do not see physical limits on growth, only limits in hearts and minds.

The session began with an overview of the report findings with authors Chris Bradley, Marc Canal, Nick Leung, and Sven Smit, followed by a panel moderated by Janet Bush.

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