NDSU Study: Effect of China's Retaliatory Tariffs

Why It Matters

The losses and ongoing uncertainty threaten farm profitability and rural economic health, while the outcome of the China deal will directly influence commodity prices, export volumes, and the financial outlook for US agriculture.

Summary

A North Dakota State study finds the US lost nearly $15 billion from March 2025 to February 2026 due to China-related measures, combining fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs; soybeans account for about $7 billion, with beef and cotton at $1.3 billion each, nuts $964 million and corn $333 million. Farmers report heightened uncertainty and pressure from high input costs and slowing rural economies. New talks with China aim to restore market access with estimated purchase commitments of $28–30 billion annually by 2027–28, but figures are not formalized and fall short of pre-trade-war levels. Analysts say tariff reductions, not explicit purchase guarantees, are the likeliest path to reopening markets, and enforcement will determine whether US farm incomes recover.