Putin Is Losing His Grip on Russia

Carnegie Endowment
Carnegie EndowmentMay 15, 2026

Why It Matters

The weakening of Putin’s domestic grip signals heightened political risk for investors and could reshape Russia’s economic and security policies, affecting global markets and geopolitical calculations.

Key Takeaways

  • Putin's focus on Ukraine leaves domestic governance in disarray.
  • Internet shutdowns expose power struggles among siloviki, oligarchs, technocrats.
  • Russian businesses now fund their own anti‑drone defenses.
  • Public and elite frustration grows, demanding Putin’s return to control.
  • Regime’s internal fractures threaten stability but not immediate collapse.

Summary

The video argues that Vladimir Putin’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has left him largely absent from day‑to‑day governance, allowing competing factions within the Russian power elite to vie for influence.

Recent nationwide internet shutdowns, the forced replacement of Telegram with the state‑run messenger Max, and the cancellation of parts of the Victory Day parade illustrate how the siloviki, oligarchs and technocrats are each trying to impose their own rules. Businesses are now paying for anti‑drone nets and air‑defence systems, a clear sign that the state’s security guarantee is eroding.

As former insider Sasha Proenko notes, “no one knows who gave the final order to cut the internet,” and “the Kremlin has shifted the cost of protection onto private firms.” She also describes a rare public outcry from both citizens and elites demanding that Putin resume direct control.

The fragmentation undermines the regime’s traditional vertical command, creating uncertainty for investors, suppliers and foreign partners. While the system is not on the brink of collapse, the growing internal discord could lead to more business disruptions and a less predictable policy environment.

Original Description

Russia’s surprising recent Internet shutdown did more than disrupt daily life: it also crippled the regime’s own communications and propaganda. It’s one of a series of strange events—from a diminished Victory Day parade to crackdowns on businesspeople and celebrities—that suggest growing disorder and confusion within the Russian state.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Moscow insider who quit over the Ukraine War, says that Vladimir Putin has lost focus on running the country. She joins Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain the erosion of Russia’s social contract and share stories from her new book From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite.
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Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/putin-is-losing-his-grip-on-russia
Host:
Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman
Guest:
Alexandra Prokopenko: https://x.com/amenka
Chapters:
00:00 - Opening Question
01:31 - Internet Shutdowns
04:23 - Telegram Crackdown
05:52 - Parade Security Chaos
08:06 - Public Frustration
10:39 - Putin Losing Grip
12:55 - Siloviki Power Rise
15:57 - Elite Confusion
17:47 - Crumbling State Capacity
19:30 - Business Pays Defense
20:38 - Economic Strains
22:12 - Budget Crisis
25:01 - War Casualties
26:43 - Veteran Concerns
27:40 - Fear Inside Russia
30:32 - Rulebook Disappears
32:04 - Asset Seizures
33:52 - Almost Naked Party
36:34 - Demand For Rules
37:41 - Future Power Struggles
39:40 - Prigozhin Mutiny Legacy
42:00 - Postwar Uncertainty
43:55 - Russia’s Tech Decline
47:21 - Future Scenarios
48:01 - Cracks In Putinism
48:52 - Closing Thoughts
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace generates strategic ideas and independent analysis, supports diplomacy, and trains the next generation of international scholar-practitioners to help countries and institutions take on the most difficult global problems and advance peace.

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