Simon Hunt: 'Inevitable' Oil Shortages, Famine Is Coming, Gold & The New Monetary Order

Why It Matters

The Hormuz blockage threatens a near‑term global recession and accelerates a strategic move toward gold‑based, multipolar trade, reshaping energy markets and monetary power structures.

Key Takeaways

• Gulf oil flow disruption could trigger global recession by July.
• Saudi-led ceasefire talks exclude US bases, reshaping regional power balance.
• BRICS nations push gold-backed trade, challenging the petrodollar system.
• China’s diversified energy mix lessens impact of Hormuz closure.
• Fertilizer shortages risk food crises in India and beyond.

Summary

Simon Hunt, a geopolitical analyst, warned that the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating the largest commodity supply disruption in modern history, with oil stocks projected to run dry in Asia, Europe and the United States by mid‑July. He linked the bottleneck to a broader realignment in the Gulf, where Saudi Arabia is negotiating a cease‑fire architecture that deliberately sidelines U.S. military bases and could reshape regional power dynamics. The analyst highlighted several converging forces: Iran’s newly acquired Russian radar and Chinese hypersonic missiles, Saudi deployment of Pakistani troops for defense, and the rapid diversification of China’s energy portfolio through Russian and Kazakh supplies, solar, wind and coal. Simultaneously, BRICS members are accelerating gold‑backed trade settlements, building vaults in Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, and moving away from the petrodollar, while the United States remains reluctant to revalue gold. Hunt cited concrete examples—Chinese tankers still slipping through the strait in reduced numbers, Saudi plans to charge tolls in yuan or riyals, and India’s dwindling fertilizer stockpiles that threaten the upcoming harvest. He warned that the oil shortage will likely trigger stagflation, and that fertilizer scarcity could spark food shortages and civil unrest across vulnerable regions. The implications are stark: investors may see heightened demand for gold and other hard assets, while oil‑related equities could suffer as markets price in supply constraints. Policymakers must grapple with a potential shift away from dollar‑denominated trade, and economies dependent on cheap energy risk slipping into recession unless alternative supply routes or diplomatic breakthroughs materialize.

Original Description

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Simon Hunt to the show. Simon is a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry. The discussion opens with the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and its profound implications for global energy supplies. Hunt explains that Saudi Arabia is attempting to broker a new regional architecture involving China, Russia, Pakistan, and Turkey, partly in response to Iran’s demonstrated military capabilities. He assesses only a fifty percent chance of success, warning that even if a ceasefire is reached, reopening the strait to normal traffic could take months, and oil stockpiles in Asia, Europe, and America may be exhausted by mid-July.

Recorded on: May 20, 2026

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Timestamps:

00:00:00 - Introduction

00:01:00 - Middle East Conflict Origins

00:03:46 - New Gulf Security Architecture

00:06:05 - Oil Supply Disruption Impacts

00:08:06 - Straits of Hormuz Reopening

00:08:37 - China Trump Trade Dynamics

00:12:25 - Oil Prices Futures Disparity

00:14:14 - Fertilizer and Food Crisis

00:16:10 - BRICS Monetary System Shift

00:22:51 - Bond Yields and Instability

00:25:02 - Recession Outlook and Assets

00:30:40 - Commodity Supercycle Analysis

00:33:00 - Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

E-Mail: mailto:[e-mail]

Website: https://simon-hunt.com/

Report: https://www.theinstitutionalstrategist.com/products-and-services/frontline-china/

Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.

In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.

He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company's cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.

He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.

The focus of the company's services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China's economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.

Simon is the author of the "Frontline China Report Service," which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China's economy, politics, and financial outlook.

Simon established this company in January 1996.

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