The New Saudi Strategy, With F. Gregory Gause III
•February 11, 2026
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Why It Matters
Saudi Arabia’s strategic realignment under MBS redefines U.S. influence, energy security, and the prospects for Middle‑East peace, making the kingdom a pivotal factor in global geopolitical and economic stability.
Key Takeaways
- •MBS has centralized Saudi decision‑making, reducing traditional prince consensus.
- •Saudi foreign policy shifted from aggressive Iran stance to pragmatic regional stability.
- •US‑Saudi ties now hinge on oil, security, and emerging AI cooperation.
- •China is Saudi’s largest oil buyer, but Riyadh still favors US partnerships.
- •Gaza war heightened Saudi demand for Palestinian statehood before normalization talks.
Summary
The interview with F. Gregory Gause III explores Saudi Arabia’s evolving strategy under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). After King Salman relinquished the prime‑ministership in 2022, MBS effectively became the kingdom’s sole decision‑maker, ending the historic consensus‑driven model that once required multiple senior princes. This centralization has reshaped both domestic governance and the kingdom’s external posture.
Gause outlines a dramatic foreign‑policy pivot: early MBS initiatives—such as the Yemen war, the Qatar boycott, and hostile rhetoric toward Iran—proved costly, culminating in the 2019 Iranian missile strike on the crucial Abqaiq oil plant. Since then, Riyadh has pursued ceasefires, re‑engaged with Iran via Chinese mediation, and emphasized regional stability over confrontation. Simultaneously, the United States remains a core partner, driven by oil market influence, security cooperation, and emerging AI collaborations, even as Trump’s personal business interests and Biden’s human‑rights focus color the bilateral dynamic.
China’s role has grown, becoming Saudi Arabia’s biggest oil customer and a significant investor in high‑tech sectors, yet Gause notes that the Public Investment Fund still leans heavily toward U.S. assets. MBS’s outreach to Beijing appears pragmatic rather than a strategic pivot, reflecting Riyadh’s desire to diversify partners without abandoning its historic U.S. alliance. The Gaza conflict has further complicated matters, raising Saudi expectations for a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood before any Saudi‑Israeli normalization can proceed.
The shifting calculus forces Washington to reassess its reliance on Saudi oil and security cooperation, while Riyadh balances great‑power engagement, domestic reform, and regional leadership ambitions. How the kingdom navigates its ties with the U.S., China, and the broader Middle East will shape geopolitical stability and energy markets for years to come.
Original Description
F. Gregory Gause III, a leading scholar on Saudi Arabia and an associate fellow at the Middle East Institute, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss the evolution of U.S.-Saudi relations as Saudi Arabia navigates its role in a Middle East with a more assertive Israel, a weaker Iran, and a less predictable United States.
Find us
The New Saudi Strategy, With F. Gregory Gause III - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/the-new-saudi-strategy
The President’s Inbox - https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox
Host
Jim Lindsay
Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR
Episode Guest
F. Gregory Gause III
Associate Fellow, Middle East Institute
Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or our guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher.
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