U.S. Economic Security

Why It Matters

Securing AI, quantum, biotech and critical‑mineral supply chains is essential for U.S. strategic competitiveness and to prevent economic leverage by China.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. aims to secure AI, quantum, biotech leadership by 2040.
• $29 trillion market opportunity hinges on addressing supply‑chain gaps.
• China dominates rare‑earth processing; U.S. depends on 95% imports.
• Targeted investments needed in quantum, biotech, and critical mineral processing.
• Aligning trade policy with allies essential for resilient supply chains.

Summary

The Council on Foreign Relations task force warned that U.S. economic security now hinges on maintaining leadership in three dual‑use technologies—artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology—each projected to generate up to $29 trillion in market value by 2040. The report, compiled by a bipartisan panel of 30 experts, highlighted deep supply‑chain vulnerabilities, from semiconductor shortages to the overlooked need for cooling, power and HVAC systems in AI data centers, and stressed that quantum and biotech receive insufficient investment relative to their strategic stakes. Key data points underscored China’s chokehold on critical minerals, especially rare‑earth processing, leaving the United States 95 percent dependent on Chinese exports. The panel called for targeted funding to accelerate quantum research and to develop cleaner, domestic processing technologies for minerals, while urging a coordinated approach with allies to diversify sources. Panelists cited concrete examples: Hillman noted the $29 trillion upside; Heidi warned that losing rare‑earth control would let China “dial up or down” critical infrastructure; Ben linked tariff‑driven raw‑material costs to soaring U.S. auto prices; and the discussion referenced the Defense Production Act‑backed cobalt refinery in Canada as a missed opportunity for allied cooperation. The implications are clear: without aligning trade policy, investing in quantum and biotech, and building a resilient, allied‑based supply chain, the United States risks ceding both economic and military advantage to China, jeopardizing national security and future growth.

Original Description

Speakers

Jonathan E. Hillman

CFR Expert

Senior Fellow for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations

Heidi E. Crebo-Rediker

CFR Expert

Senior Fellow, Center for Geoeconomic Studies, Council on Foreign Relations; CFR Member

Benn Steil

CFR Expert

Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations

Presider

Seema Mody

Technology and Global Markets Correspondent, CNBC; CFR Member

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