Warning: Don’t Sell Blow-Offs in Stock Market, Veteran Macro Investor Andrew Perry Says

Why It Matters

Perry’s warning underscores that misreading liquidity‑driven blow‑offs can lead to costly exits, while his framework offers a disciplined path for preserving capital and capturing upside in today’s volatile equity markets.

Key Takeaways

• Avoid selling during market blow‑off phases, warns veteran macro investor.
• Liquidity, technicals, and geopolitical risks drive his five‑pillar framework.
• Current US rally may still climb 20‑40% before correction.
• Pair‑trade US equities long, Australia and Europe short amid energy stress.
• Treasury quarterly refunding dates crucial liquidity signals for risk management.

Summary

In this episode of Monetary Matters, veteran macro investor Andrew Perry cautions listeners against trying to sell during market "blow‑off" phases, likening such attempts to standing in front of a train. He references the 1999 Nasdaq surge and warns that the current U.S. rally—up roughly 60‑65%—could still surge another 20‑40% before a correction, making premature exits especially risky. Perry outlines his five‑pillar framework that blends macro‑economic storylines, liquidity analysis, monetary policy, curve positioning, and bottom‑up technicals. He emphasizes that liquidity, measured through rate‑of‑change models and Treasury quarterly refunding (QR) announcements, is the primary driver of market moves today, while traditional interest‑rate policy plays a diminished role. He illustrates his approach with concrete examples: shorting Australian and European equities while staying long U.S. stocks, and focusing on agricultural commodities versus energy‑dependent nations like Germany. Perry also highlights the importance of QR dates, noting how short‑term Treasury issuance has repeatedly sparked market rallies and can serve as a reliable liquidity signal. The takeaway for investors is clear: avoid chasing tops in a volatile rally, prioritize risk‑adjusted pair trades, and monitor Treasury QR schedules and liquidity metrics. By integrating these pillars, market participants can better navigate potential drawdowns and capitalize on asymmetric opportunities.

Original Description

Sponsor: Teucrium Corn Fund (NYSE Arca: CORN):

https://teucrium.com/corn

In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with veteran macro investor Andrew Perry of Macro Pillars. Perry provides a bullish technical outlook for US stocks, offering specific targets for the S&P 500 while warning against shorting the current momentum on a nominal basis. The discussion explores strategic pair trades, specifically being long US equities while shorting energy-dependent nations like Australia and Germany. Perry also explains the macro drivers behind his long positions in agricultural commodities—including corn, wheat, and soybeans—driven by fertilizer stress and geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Listeners will gain deep insights into why the MOVE index and US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcements (QRA) are more critical indicators of market liquidity than the traditional VIX. Finally, Perry details the specific yield curve shifts, moving from bear to bull steepeners, that will signal the next major recessionary trade. Recorded May 11, 2026.

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Macro Pillars Website https://macropillars.com/

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:37 Teucrium $CORN Pre-roll

01:00 "You Don't Sell A Blow-Off"

08:20 The Five Pillars

10:00 "Liquidity Is Not Abundant"

16:20 Treasury Buyback Program

18:20 Long Ags, Short European Equities

22:48 Teucrium $CORN Midroll

24:30 Long U.S. Stocks, Short Australian Stocks

30:08 "I Am A Trader"

32:00 MOVE and VIX Are Down (Implied Vol for Stocks and Bonds)

42:20 Recessionary Signal *IF* Bond Yields Fall on Rising Oil Prices (To Be Clear, This Has Not Happened Yet)

53:01 Closing Thoughts

58:37 Teucrium $CORN Endroll

This episode is sponsored by the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN). Download our free eBook, "Why Investors Are Increasingly Turning to Commodity ETFs," to explore the macro forces shaping commodity markets today.

Download the eBook: insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs

CORN Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/corn

This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. The prospectus is available at https://teucrium.com/corn.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodities and futures generally are volatile, and instruments whose underlying investments include commodities and futures are not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

For further discussion of these and additional risks associated with an investment in the Funds please read the respective Fund Prospectus before investing.

CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT are commodity pools regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Funds do not track the spot price of corn, sugar, soybeans or wheat. These Funds, which are ETPs, are not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and are not subject to regulation thereunder. Teucrium Trading, LLC is the Sponsor for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT.

PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for CORN, CANE, SOYB, and WEAT and is not affiliated with Teucrium Investment Advisors, LLC and Teucrium Trading, LLC.

Sources

• Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports.

• Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary.

• Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date).

Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.

5324752

Sourcing Index

• Fertilizer trade through Strait of Hormuz: International Fertilizer Association (IFA), Global Fertilizer Trade Data; USDA ERS, Fertilizer Use and Price reports.

• Corn as heaviest nitrogen user: USDA Economic Research Service, Fertilizer Use and Price (most recent edition). • Input cost / margin impact and acreage-switching scenarios: Framing is conditional and analytical; not presented as projections. Consistent with FINRA 2210(d)(1) standards for educational market commentary.

• Fund structure: Teucrium Corn Fund Prospectus (most recent effective date).