BIA Raises Radio’s 2026 Local Ad Forecast On Political Strength

Why It Matters

The upward revision signals renewed confidence in radio’s ability to capture political and digital ad dollars, reshaping budget allocations for advertisers across traditional and emerging media.

Key Takeaways

• BIA lifts 2026 local ad forecast to $184.5 billion.
• Radio's total 2026 revenue projected at $12.4 billion.
• Political spending adds $8.4 billion to local ad market.
• Digital out‑of‑home now a separate category in BIA methodology.

Pulse Analysis

The latest BIA Advisory Services forecast marks a notable shift for the U.S. local advertising ecosystem. By lifting the 2026 total to $184.5 billion, the firm highlights an 8.1% YoY increase driven by stronger mobile, social, and CTV/OTT performance. This upward trend contrasts with earlier pessimism about traditional media, suggesting that advertisers are redistributing spend toward channels that blend reach with data‑driven targeting. The forecast also extends through 2030, projecting $222 billion in local ad spend, which underscores the long‑term growth potential for both legacy and programmatic platforms.

Radio remains a pivotal component of the local mix, with combined over‑the‑air and digital revenues slated at $12.4 billion for 2026. Over‑the‑air radio is expected to grow modestly by 1.8%, while digital radio enjoys a 5.0% boost, reflecting the medium’s adaptation to streaming and connected car ecosystems. Crucially, political advertising—estimated at $8.4 billion—provides a seasonal tailwind that can offset slower consumer spending in other categories. This political spend, amplified by the upcoming midterm elections, positions radio alongside broadcast TV, cable, and OTT as a key conduit for campaign messaging.

For marketers, the revised outlook signals a need to balance traditional reach with emerging programmatic opportunities. BIA’s decision to separate Digital Out‑of‑Home from traditional OOH acknowledges the growing importance of location‑based, programmatic buys in local campaigns. Vertical growth areas such as real estate, travel, retail, and financial services will likely drive higher allocations, especially as higher‑income households sustain discretionary spending. Advertisers that integrate radio’s credibility and local connection with data‑rich digital formats can capture a larger share of the expanding $184.5 billion market, positioning themselves for sustained performance through the decade ahead.