News•Mar 18, 2026
Higher Energy Prices Might Eat Your Tax Refund, Economists Say
Stanford economists estimate that rising gasoline prices could cost the average U.S. household about $740 this year, roughly matching the projected $750 boost from the 2023 tax refund legislation. Their model assumes a brief Strait of Hormuz closure, with gasoline peaking at $4.36 per gallon in May before easing. IRS data, however, shows refunds rising only $360 on average, highlighting uncertainty on both sides. The net effect may be a modest drag on consumer spending despite the fiscal stimulus.
