Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
JPMorgan Chase reported Q1 2026 net income of $16.5 billion, a 10% rise in revenue driven by a 21% jump in fixed‑income trading and a 28% surge in investment‑banking fees. Management highlighted resilient U.S. consumer spending and stable credit performance, while flagging geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher energy prices. The bank warned that the next credit cycle could bring deeper losses despite private‑credit not being systemic. Regulators could impose roughly $20 billion in additional capital under Basel III and GSIB rules, nudging borrowing costs higher.
Chart of the Day: The Emerging Markets Flowpocalypse
The latest Bespoke Investment Group chart flags a sharp acceleration in capital outflows from emerging‑market assets, a phenomenon the firm dubs the “Emerging Markets Flowpocalypse.” In the first quarter of 2024, investors withdrew roughly $45 billion from equities and an additional...
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: BlackRock (BLK)
BlackRock reported a robust Q1 2026, posting $130 billion in net inflows and 27% revenue growth, driven by an 8% organic base‑fee expansion. Management emphasized three themes: client consolidation into fewer managers, strong institutional demand for private credit, and retirement‑plan reforms...
The Closer – Reasons for Optimism, PPI, BDCs – 4/14/26
Truck orders surged 211% year‑over‑year in the three months ending February, underscoring robust demand for commercial vehicles before the war. ADP reported 157,000 private‑sector jobs added in the week to March 27, the strongest weekly hiring stretch on record. Yet consumer...
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Goldman Sachs (GS)
Goldman Sachs reported a 19.8% return on equity for Q1 2026, buoyed by heightened client engagement as market volatility surged late in the quarter. Trading and financing activity grew as investors repositioned amid geopolitical tension, AI disruption concerns, and volatile energy...
The Closer – Fedspeak, Housing Affordability, Positioning – 4/13/26
The Federal Reserve’s recent commentary has turned noticeably more hawkish, a shift that historically dampens forward equity returns. At the same time, mortgage rates have rebounded to roughly 6.5%, squeezing housing affordability. Existing‑home sales have slumped to their lowest level...
Chart of the Day: Software Chart + Longshots Update
The latest Bespoke Investment Group chart highlights a strong rally in the software sector, which has gained roughly 15% year‑to‑date, outpacing the broader S&P 500’s 8% rise. At the same time, the "Longshots" segment—smaller, high‑growth software names—shows mixed performance, with...
Can Forgotten Biotech Break Out?
The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) surged more than 50% from its April lows to a mid‑January peak, then entered a prolonged sideways phase. Recent price action shows the fund just reclaimed its 50‑day moving average but has yet to breach...
Bespoke’s Weekly Sector Snapshot — 4/2/26
Bespoke Investment Group’s weekly sector snapshot released on April 2, 2026 highlights a modest rally in technology stocks, continued weakness in energy, and a narrowing spread between high‑yield and investment‑grade credit. The report notes that the S&P 500’s information‑technology index gained 1.2% while...
The Closer – Ceasefire Confusion, Valuations, Fed – 4/8/26
U.S. equity valuations have slid sharply since their late‑October 2025 peak, reflecting tighter monetary conditions and lingering geopolitical risk. The Federal Reserve’s latest minutes adopted a more hawkish tone than recent meetings, hinting at possible further rate hikes. Despite the...
Chart of the Day – Back Above the 50- and 200-DMA
The benchmark S&P 500 reclaimed territory above both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages, marking a technical reversal after weeks of volatility. The index closed up roughly 1.2% on the day, with trading volume rising about 15% versus its five‑day...
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Delta Air Lines reported a record first‑quarter 2026 revenue of $14.2 billion, up 9.4% year‑over‑year, and earnings per share of $0.64. The airline faced a sharp fuel price surge that added roughly $2 billion in extra costs, prompting a strategic reduction of...
The Closer – Record Backwardation, Supply Chain Stress – 4/7/26
Brent spot prices have entered an unprecedented backwardation, trading more than $30 per barrel above the front‑month June Brent futures contract. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and the Logistics Managers Index both recorded sharply rising prices...
Chart of the Day – Oversold and Overbought Extremes
The latest Bespoke Investment Group Chart of the Day highlights extreme oversold and overbought conditions across major equity indices. Using the Relative Strength Index, the chart marks RSI readings below 30 as oversold and above 70 as overbought, pinpointing potential...
The Closer – Cyclicals Technically Better, Backwardation – 4/6/26
Cyclical segments of the equity market have posted stronger technical patterns after a brief rally, suggesting renewed momentum. Meanwhile, front‑month West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reached a new cycle high, creating a record spread versus the second‑month contract and...
The Bespoke Report – 4/2/26 – It’s All Oil, Oil the Time
The Bespoke Report for April 2, 2026 highlights that oil prices are the primary constraint on equity market movements, especially after a volatile first quarter. Energy stocks posted extraordinary gains and losses, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifting supply dynamics. The newsletter...
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Nike (NKE)
Nike reported better‑than‑expected earnings for its Q3 2026 quarter but announced a cut to its forward guidance, sending the stock down more than 15% on April 1. The company is deliberately resetting its business, prioritizing inventory reduction and margin recovery over short‑term...
The Closer – Trend Test, ISM, Home Loans – 4/1/26
The Closer highlighted today’s short‑term trend test covering the Nasdaq, mega‑cap technology stocks, the VIX and the U.S. dollar. The ISM Manufacturing index posted a new cycle high as its component indices surged. A record share of newly originated home...
The Closer – Quarter End Chaos, JOLTS, Consumer Confidence – 3/31/26
The S&P 500 surged 2.91 % on the final trading day of the quarter, marking the strongest quarter‑end rally since 1953. At the same time, the latest JOLTS report showed hires slipping to a 10‑year low when the COVID‑19 crash is...
Chart of the Day: Intraday Weakness
Bespoke Investment Group’s latest Chart of the Day highlights pronounced intraday weakness across U.S. equity markets, with the S&P 500 slipping roughly 0.6% by mid‑morning and breaking key short‑term support levels. The chart shows lower highs, shrinking buying volume, and...
The Closer – Mystery Charts, Sector Streaks, Flow of Funds – 3/19/26
The energy sector has logged 49 consecutive days in overbought territory, marking the second‑longest streak on record. Intraday crude oil futures are being pushed by extreme positioning swings and thin liquidity. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds data shows...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Williams-Sonoma (WSM)
Williams‑Sonoma reported Q4 2025 comparable sales growth of 3.2% and an operating margin of 20.3%, beating EPS expectations and lifting the stock about 6% after the call. Management said tariff headwinds were mitigated through sourcing and pricing actions, though margin...
Chart of the Day – Gold Loses Its Glitter
Gold’s price slipped sharply this week, shedding its recent rally and falling roughly 2% against the dollar. The decline coincided with a jump in U.S. Treasury yields, which rose to about 4.3%, and a strengthening dollar index. Lower inflation expectations...
B.I.G. Tips – Powell’s Penultimate Meeting
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s penultimate policy meeting is drawing intense scrutiny as markets anticipate the final guidance before the Fed’s 2024 rate‑cut cycle. Analysts expect a nuanced tone that balances lingering inflation risks with signs of a softening labor...
Chart of the Day – NVDA Stalls, But Semis Keep Trucking
Nvidia’s shares have plateaued after a recent rally, while the broader semiconductor index continues to post gains. The stall reflects valuation concerns and a slowdown in AI‑driven demand, yet chip makers benefit from sustained supply‑chain resilience and rising data‑center spending....
The Bespoke Report – 3/13/26 – A Sell-Off So Steep, Investors Won’t Sell
The Bespoke Report highlighted a sharp market sell‑off, with the S&P 500 registering an extreme oversold reading while still hovering near record highs. This technical divergence suggests a fragile equilibrium: prices could tumble further to align with the oversold signal, or...
The Closer – Retail Teeter, Fertilizer, Trade – 3/12/26
Retail flows and options volumes have moderated over the past year, signaling reduced market activity. In the United States, fertilizer prices surged 29% month‑to‑date after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted supply chains. Futures markets now price the December 2026...
Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Oracle (ORCL)
Oracle reported a strong Q3 FY2026 earnings beat, driven by rapid AI and cloud adoption. Multicloud database revenue surged 531% YoY and AI infrastructure grew 243%, outpacing supply. The company secured over $29 billion in new infrastructure contracts and its remaining...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: AeroVironment (AVAV)
Defense tech firm AeroVironment reported mixed Q3 2026 results, missing expectations because of delayed government funding, supply-chain issues, and the cancellation of the Space Force’s SCAR program. Management highlighted a robust $1.1 billion funded backlog and $4.6 billion in year‑to‑date awards, and...
The Closer – Big Bond Sale, BDC, Housing – 3/10/26
Amazon became the latest investment‑grade borrower to tap the bond market, issuing a tranche that ranks as the fourth‑largest IG bond sale ever to fund its data‑center expansion. The deal adds several billion dollars of capital at a competitive yield,...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Vail Resorts (MTN)
Vail Resorts reported its Q2 2026 results amid the worst Rockies weather on record, with snowfall down 43% year‑over‑year and February temperatures 9°F above average. The harsh conditions limited terrain to 70‑80% of acreage, driving a 13% drop in skier visits,...
A Range Like Few Others
Volatility has surged across markets, driven by geopolitical sparks such as the Iran situation. Crude oil experienced an extraordinary intraday swing, with WTI’s high‑low range topping 40% yesterday—the second‑largest percentage move since the 2020 price collapse. Today the energy sector...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Brown-Forman (BF/B)
Brown-Forman reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, expecting a low single‑digit organic net‑sales decline despite a soft US spirits market and a severe slump in Canada, where sales are down nearly 60%. The company highlighted strong performance from Jack Daniel’s Tennessee...
The Closer – AI, Earnings, LatAm – 2/26/26
The Bespoke Institutional "Closer" newsletter for Feb 26, 2026 recaps today’s AI‑related equities, highlighting stocks tied to OpenAI. It then surveys the latest corporate earnings across sectors, followed by an analysis of Latin American market performance and recent fund‑flow spikes. The issue...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Lowe’s (LOW)
Lowe’s reported Q4 2025 comparable sales growth of 1.3% and full‑year revenue of $86.3 billion, beating EPS expectations. Management forecast 2026 comparable sales flat to a modest 2% increase, citing a roughly flat home‑improvement market. Elevated mortgage rates and a lock‑in...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: CAVA (CAVA)
CAVA reported its first $1 billion in annual revenue, supported by 439 locations across 28 states. Full‑year revenue grew 22.5% while same‑restaurant sales rose 4%, though Q4 comps slipped to 0.5%. Management guided 2026 same‑restaurant sales of 3‑5% and highlighted a...
The Closer – Doves Fly, Breadth Disconnect, Repo – 2/19/26
The latest Bespoke Institutional "Closer" highlights a shift in Federal Reserve rhetoric, suggesting a softer stance on monetary policy. It also points to a widening disconnect between market breadth and price performance, while flagging renewed stress in the repo market....
B.I.G. Tips – Earnings Triple Plays Recap: Q4 2025
The fourth quarter of 2025 saw 98 earnings triple plays across roughly 1,100 U.S. listed companies, a drop of 110 from the previous reporting period’s 208. A triple play occurs when a firm beats both earnings‑per‑share and revenue forecasts while...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Leidos (LDOS)
Leidos reported a robust 2025 despite a six‑week government shutdown, lifting adjusted EBITDA margins by 120 basis points to 14.1% and boosting non‑GAAP earnings per share 17%. The firm maintained a 1.3× book‑to‑bill ratio, with $7 billion of awards rolling into...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Toll Brothers (TOL)
Toll Brothers reported Q1 2026 results that beat expectations, delivering $1.85 billion in revenue and a 25% year‑over‑year EPS increase to $2.19. Management highlighted modest gains in web traffic, foot traffic and deposits, while keeping buyer incentives flat at 8% of sales...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Fluor (FLR)
Fluor Corp reported Q4 2025 earnings, noting weaker‑than‑expected EPS and revenue but saw its stock jump up to 7% on the call. Management indicated that client hesitation is easing and projected 2026 new awards to be significantly higher than the...
Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) reported a disappointing Q4 2025, with sales down 12% and adjusted EBITDA plunging 44% as large homebuilders cut starts to clear excess inventory. Despite the revenue slump, gross margins held steady at 29.8%, above the pre‑transformation 2019...