China Calls for APEC Cooperation as Commerce Minister Skips Opening over ‘Urgent Official Business’
China’s International Trade Representative Li Chenggang opened the APEC trade ministers’ meeting in Suzhou, standing in for absent Commerce Minister Wang Wentao who cited urgent official business. Li called on APEC economies to send a strong, unified message supporting regional cooperation amid heightened trade tensions. The meeting follows a high‑profile U.S.–China summit in Beijing where both sides agreed on a new Boeing aircraft order and a $17 billion annual U.S. agricultural purchase through 2028. U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer leads the American delegation.
NFL Wants Certain Trading Contracts Banned From Prediction Markets Like 'First Play of Game,' Injuries
The NFL has written to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig urging the commission to ban specific sports‑related prediction‑market contracts, such as first‑play, injury, and broadcaster‑mention bets, and to raise the minimum trading age to 21. The league argues these contracts are...
How Much Further Does This Teflon Market Have to Go? Here's What Traders Say
The S&P 500 surged past 7,400 on May 8, marking its highest level ever, while prediction‑market platform Kalshi gave traders a 59 % probability the index will reach 8,000 before year‑end. RBC raised its 12‑month forward target to 7,900, with a median model...
Kalshi Traders See Odds Rising that a U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Will Be Reached by 2027
Prediction‑market platform Kalshi now prices a 58% probability that the United States and Iran will reach a nuclear agreement by 2027, with a 47% chance of a deal by September. The odds rose after an Axios report suggested the two...
Goodbye Quarterly Earnings? Here's when Traders Believe This Big Change Will Happen
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market are betting that the SEC will replace mandatory quarterly earnings reports with semi‑annual filings, assigning a 73% probability that the rule change will be finalized by April 2027. The odds for an earlier January 2027 implementation...
After Coinbase, Prediction Market Traders Forecast More Tech Layoffs Ahead
Coinbase announced a 14% workforce reduction, blaming AI and a crypto price slump, marking the latest wave of tech layoffs. Prediction‑market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket now assign 92% and 87% probabilities, respectively, that 2026 layoffs will exceed the 447,000 cuts...
Milken-Adjacent Power100 Attendees Aim to Reclaim the DEI in Finance Narrative
The Power100 gathering, held alongside the Milken Institute Global Conference, spotlighted the stark under‑representation of minority‑ and women‑owned firms, which manage just 1.4% of the roughly $82 trillion U.S. asset pool. Attendees, including Blueprint Capital’s Jacob Walthour and former Vice President...
Kalshi Traders See April Jobs Report Coming in Better than Economists' Estimates
Kalshi’s prediction‑market participants are betting the April non‑farm payroll report will beat the Dow Jones consensus of 53,000 jobs, assigning a 50% probability of at least 66,000 jobs added. An 81% chance the figure will be positive would mark the...
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Won’t Return to Normal Until August or Later, According to Kalshi Traders
Prediction‑market traders on Kalshi see only a 56% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by August, with odds rising to 57% for September. The market defines normal flow as a 7‑day moving average of 60 vessels per day, based...
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon Issued Vague Credit Recession Warning, but the Bond Market Has More Pressing Issues
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that a future credit recession could be far worse than expected, even though he offered no specific market signal. At the same time, the impending appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair is prompting...
Cautious Optimism: Berkshire Investors Weigh Future Under New CEO Greg Abel
Berkshire Hathaway shareholders at the annual meeting voiced cautious optimism about Greg Abel, the new CEO hand‑picked by Warren Buffett. While some miss Buffett’s storytelling flair, most trust Abel’s operational expertise and Buffett’s endorsement. The sentiment suggests confidence that Berkshire’s...
U.S. Oil Prices Will Exceed Iran Wartime High to Above $125 as Conflict Drags on, Kalshi Traders Say
Traders on the Kalshi prediction‑market platform see a better‑than‑50% chance that U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will climb to around $127 per barrel in 2026, well above the current $113 level. A 63% probability now exists for WTI to...
Kalshi Bettors Called It: Powell Says He Will Stay on as Fed Governor After Chair Term Ends
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced he will remain on the Board of Governors after his chairmanship ends, confirming the 30% probability prediction on Kalshi that he would not resign by June. The Department of Justice dropped its criminal probe...
Risky Meme Trading Is Back. A Trading Rule Change May Have Lit the Fuse
Retail investors are reviving meme‑stock trading as the SEC scrapped the pattern‑day‑trader rule, removing the $25,000 equity floor. The change coincides with an April rally in risk assets, partly driven by an Iran cease‑fire, prompting speculative bets in companies like...
Bessent Says 'Many' U.S. Allies Have Asked for Currency Swaps Amid Iran War Turbulence
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a Senate appropriations hearing that many Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, have asked for dollar‑denominated currency swap lines to offset the economic shock from the Iran‑U.S. conflict. A swap line would provide...