Commodity Culture

'Dangerous Game' In Iran Could Lead to 'Catastrophic' Energy Crisis: Doomberg

Doomberg argues that the tentative cease‑fire in Iran masks a looming energy catastrophe if hostilities resume, warning that the next phase could see Iran deliberately targeting oil and gas assets across the Middle East. He notes that oil markets have appeared resilient thanks to China’s pre‑war stockpiling and a sharp drop in Chinese imports, but this buffer is finite. A renewed conflict could shut the Strait of Hormuz, destroy the UAE‑to‑Saudi East‑West pipeline, and close the Red Sea, eliminating roughly 20 million barrels per day of supply. Simultaneously, Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, offline by 17 %, and other regional facilities would further strain supplies, with Europe bearing the brunt. Doomberg cites concrete incidents—missile strikes on Ross Laffan, Iranian drones over Bahrain, and the closure of Hormuz—as proof of Iran’s capability. He also highlights that Russia may enjoy a short‑term oil revenue boost while sanctions are eased, whereas the United States and Israel risk depleting air‑defense assets that could otherwise aid Ukraine. The analyst warns markets are under‑pricing these risks, which could trigger sharp oil price spikes, inflationary pressure on food and fertilizer, and a potential global food‑security shock. Policymakers must consider contingency plans for energy supply and geopolitical escalation before the “dangerous game” turns catastrophic.