Compounding Capital

Compounding Capital

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Substack with deep dives including merger arbitrage and special-situations case studies

RAVE Q3 '26: Windshield vs Rearview Mirror
NewsMay 8, 2026

RAVE Q3 '26: Windshield vs Rearview Mirror

Rave Restaurant Group posted Q3 FY2026 results showing 8.7% year‑over‑year revenue growth, driven by Pizza Inn’s 2.3% same‑store sales increase despite adverse weather. The balance sheet remains strong, with net cash rising to $12 million and zero financial debt. Management signals an...

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Global Crossing Airlines (Q1 2026): Operating Leverage Takes Off, But Liquidity Demands Continued Attention
NewsMay 8, 2026

Global Crossing Airlines (Q1 2026): Operating Leverage Takes Off, But Liquidity Demands Continued Attention

Global Crossing Airlines posted Q1 2026 revenue up 15% year‑over‑year, driving operating income to double at $6.1 million and EBITDA to $10.8 million despite a smaller net fleet. The shares trade at roughly 2.2× forward EV/EBITDAR, a deep discount that attracted Galloway...

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Diversified Energy: A Good Deal in More Ways Than One
NewsMay 8, 2026

Diversified Energy: A Good Deal in More Ways Than One

Diversified Energy (DEC) posted a $161 million net loss for Q1 2026, a figure heavily skewed by a $398 million non‑cash derivative charge. Underlying operating cash flow remains strong, and the company leveraged a $1.18 billion Camino acquisition through a Carlyle‑backed SPV that keeps...

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Structural Monitoring Systems Q3 Webinar Addendum
NewsMay 1, 2026

Structural Monitoring Systems Q3 Webinar Addendum

Structural Monitoring Systems (ASX: SMN) held a Q3 FY26 investor webinar on April 29, where CEO Rick Freeman detailed a 15% year‑over‑year revenue rise to A$45 million (≈US$30 million) and announced new contracts in Queensland and Vietnam worth A$12 million. The company unveiled...

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A U.S. Chemicals Special Situation: Reading Between the Lines of a Sudden CEO Exit
NewsApr 29, 2026

A U.S. Chemicals Special Situation: Reading Between the Lines of a Sudden CEO Exit

A U.S. chemicals firm with a $500 million‑$1 billion market cap saw its CEO resign abruptly, sparking a sharp share decline. The company is reportedly in an advanced sale process, having already received a price range offer amid a strategic review. Recent...

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SenSen Networks: A Speed Bump or a Broken Thesis?
NewsApr 29, 2026

SenSen Networks: A Speed Bump or a Broken Thesis?

SenSen Networks reported Q3 revenue shortfalls as customer projects were delayed by economic uncertainty and NVIDIA supply‑chain constraints, putting FY26 revenue below its A$19.2 million (≈$12.7 million) target. Despite the setback, annual recurring revenue rose 17% YoY to A$11 million (≈$7.3 million) and the...

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Elixir Energy (EXR.AX): Imminent Catalysts and a 50% Peer Discount
NewsApr 24, 2026

Elixir Energy (EXR.AX): Imminent Catalysts and a 50% Peer Discount

Elixir Energy (EXR.AX) has expanded its booked contingent resources by 24% to 3,455 BCFe, lifting its intrinsic baseline. Near‑term de‑risking events include the Xstate Diona‑1 well test in April and Elixir’s Lorelle‑3 horizontal test in June. The company’s market cap of...

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Turned Around Software Company in Play
NewsApr 16, 2026

Turned Around Software Company in Play

A software firm with roughly $350 million market cap has completed a turnaround, posting GAAP profitability, positive free cash flow and a sticky recurring‑revenue base above 90%. The newly appointed board is exercising tight capital discipline, positioning the company as a...

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Canada Nickel Company: Navigating the Lassonde Trough Towards Construction
NewsApr 13, 2026

Canada Nickel Company: Navigating the Lassonde Trough Towards Construction

Canada Nickel Company (CNC) remains in the “Lassonde trough,” the gap between feasibility studies and construction for its Crawford nickel project. The company faces a CAD 29.7 million (≈US $21.7 million) bridge loan maturing in May 2026, offset by about CAD 13.8 million (≈US $10 million) in cash. Visibility...

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Nano-Cap SaaS Gem: Headwinds, Green Shoots, and the Private Equity Playbook
NewsApr 2, 2026

Nano-Cap SaaS Gem: Headwinds, Green Shoots, and the Private Equity Playbook

The micro‑cap SaaS company posted FY2025 results that mix balance‑sheet strength with top‑line weakness. An at‑the‑market offering wiped out legacy debt, leaving the firm with zero debt and an undrawn credit line. Revenue fell year‑over‑year as its volatile segment faced...

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Pico-Cap FY25 Review: Strong Incremental Margins and Profitability Inflection...
NewsMar 24, 2026

Pico-Cap FY25 Review: Strong Incremental Margins and Profitability Inflection...

Pico-Cap’s FY25 report shows a dramatic earnings swing, with revenue surging and gross margins expanding to deliver full‑year profitability for a company valued under $10 million. Cash generated from operations before working‑capital changes suggests strong scalability once the business reaches larger...

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Exasol FY2025: The Turnaround Is Complete. Now Comes the Hard Part.
NewsMar 22, 2026

Exasol FY2025: The Turnaround Is Complete. Now Comes the Hard Part.

Exasol AG reported FY2025 results that confirm its cost‑structure turnaround, delivering $4.5 million EBITDA, $3.3 million net income and $4.3 million free cash flow. Annual recurring revenue in its focus verticals reached $29 million, but growth slowed to 10 % year‑over‑year, down from 24 % the...

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IDT Q2 FY26 Update: First Pass
NewsMar 12, 2026

IDT Q2 FY26 Update: First Pass

IDT Corp reported Q2 FY26 revenue up about 6% year‑over‑year, with its NRS, Fintech and net2phone segments contributing over half of operating income. GAAP EPS came in at $0.84, missing the consensus of $0.90‑$0.91, primarily because SG&A surged, highlighted by...

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Vistry’s FY25 Results: The Architect Exits, The Market Panics
NewsMar 10, 2026

Vistry’s FY25 Results: The Architect Exits, The Market Panics

Vistry Group posted FY25 adjusted operating profit of £354 million and cut net debt to £144 million, generating roughly £250 million of pre‑IFRS 16 free cash flow – an almost 19% yield on equity. Despite solid fundamentals, the stock plunged after the board announced...

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