Confounded Interest

Confounded Interest

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Independent macro/credit/housing finance blog highlighting mortgage rates, spreads, housing indicators, and policy.

Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era...
NewsApr 2, 2026

Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Back To The Stone Age, Crude Oil And US Gasoline Prices Return To Obama/Biden Era...

President Donald Trump warned of a full‑scale bombing campaign against Iran following recent Israeli and U.S. strikes, reigniting geopolitical tension in the Middle East. The conflict has pushed crude oil to roughly $80 per barrel, a price level last seen...

By Confounded Interest
US Industrial Production Rises For 4th Straight Month In February (0.2% MoM, 1.4% YoY)
NewsMar 16, 2026

US Industrial Production Rises For 4th Straight Month In February (0.2% MoM, 1.4% YoY)

U.S. industrial production posted a fourth consecutive monthly gain in February, rising 0.2% month‑over‑month and 1.44% year‑over‑year, outpacing the 0.1% consensus. Manufacturing output mirrored the broader trend, also expanding 0.2% MoM, with durable goods edging up 0.1% and nondurables up...

By Confounded Interest
Simply Unaffordable! FHA Lower  Credit Score Borrowers (0-619) Suffer Escalating Mortgage Delinquency Rates
NewsMar 2, 2026

Simply Unaffordable! FHA Lower Credit Score Borrowers (0-619) Suffer Escalating Mortgage Delinquency Rates

FHA loans held by borrowers with credit scores between 0 and 619 are experiencing a sharp rise in 90‑day delinquency rates, the steepest since the program’s inception. The surge follows a post‑COVID fiscal stimulus that drove home prices to record...

By Confounded Interest
US Pending Home Sales Collapse To Lowest Level Since 2001
NewsFeb 19, 2026

US Pending Home Sales Collapse To Lowest Level Since 2001

U.S. pending home sales have fallen to their lowest level since 2001, marking a sharp reversal that began in 2021 and accelerated through early 2026. The decline coincides with mortgage rates that remain well above historic averages, squeezing buyer affordability....

By Confounded Interest
Average Homeowner Tenure Rises To 8.6 Years (Americans Aren’t Moving Much)
NewsFeb 9, 2026

Average Homeowner Tenure Rises To 8.6 Years (Americans Aren’t Moving Much)

The average U.S. homeowner now stays in a property for 8.6 years, the longest stretch since the early 2000s. Rising home prices and persistently high mortgage rates are forcing owners to hold onto homes longer, while the share of Americans...

By Confounded Interest