EUR/USD: Oil-Driven Terms of Trade Support Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analyst Michael Pfister argues that higher oil prices and the United States' shift to a net oil exporter improve its terms of trade, bolstering the dollar against the euro. Because central banks focus on stabilising inflation, price adjustments occur slowly, leaving the nominal EUR/USD rate to absorb most of the shift. The analyst sees this as the primary driver of recent dollar appreciation, while warning that a sustained drop in oil prices could quickly reverse the trend. He predicts a potential rebound in EUR/USD if the oil shock proves temporary.
US Dollar Index Rises Above 99.00 as Middle East Tensions Drive Inflation Fears
The US Dollar Index surged past the 99‑point mark, trading around 99.20 for a third consecutive day, as investors reassessed Federal Reserve rate‑cut expectations. The 10‑year Treasury yield steadied near 4.06%, reflecting higher real yields amid rising inflation concerns. Escalating...
Canadian Dollar Bulls Seem Hesitant as Firmer USD Counters Elevated Oil Prices
The USD/CAD pair rebounded toward the 1.3700 level after a brief pullback, but remains trapped in a two‑week range. A firmer U.S. dollar, buoyed by safe‑haven flows and waning expectations of three Fed rate cuts, is offsetting the rally in...
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI Climbs to 62.1 in February, Services PMI Rises to 56.7
China’s RatingDog Manufacturing PMI surged to 62.1 in February, up from 50.3 in January, while the Services PMI rose to 56.7, both beating market expectations. The strong readings signal a robust rebound in Chinese factory output and service activity. The...
CEE FX: Forint and Lira Seen Under Pressure – ING
ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky warns that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies, especially the Hungarian forint and Turkish lira, will feel downward pressure as an Iran‑related energy shock pushes oil and gas prices higher and strengthens the US dollar. The...
AUD/JPY Trades Above 111.00 After Paring Recent Losses
AUD/JPY rebounded to trade above the 111.00 level during Asian hours, offsetting earlier losses despite heightened safe‑haven demand from the Middle East crisis. The Australian dollar’s recovery was supported by a modest easing in domestic inflation and a dip in...
BoJ’s Himino Says Policy Should Gradually Move Toward Neutral Stance with Moderate Rate Hikes
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Himino said the central bank’s policy remains somewhat accommodative but should gradually move toward a neutral stance through moderate rate hikes. He noted that the inflation gap is still slightly negative but expected to...
Week Ahead: US Dollar Slips on Trade Uncertainty as NFP, Eurozone HICP Loom
US Dollar slipped this week, trading near 97.60 on the DXY, down about 0.2% as traders digest the Supreme Court’s decision that declared Trump‑era tariffs illegal and the administration’s subsequent new levies. A stronger‑than‑expected Producer Price Index failed to lift...
GBP/USD Slips as US PPI Lifts US Dollar, Middle East Risks Rise
GBP/USD slipped about 0.10% to 1.3469 as US core PPI jumped 3.6% YoY, reinforcing expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve. The stronger dollar was further supported by rising geopolitical risk in the Middle East, which hurt risk‑on sentiment. In...
China: Policy Mix Guides 2026 Growth Path – UOB
UOB analyst Ho Woei Chen projects China’s 2026 real GDP growth at 4.7%, with the National People’s Congress likely setting a target range of 4.5‑5%. Inflation is expected to stay low, with a CPI target near 2% and actual inflation around 0.9%....
EUR/JPY Pressured Lower by Yen Strength, Softer German Inflation
EUR/JPY slipped to around 184.00 on Friday, marking a second consecutive decline of 0.10%. The drop was driven by a stronger Japanese yen after mixed inflation data showed a 1.6% year‑on‑year rise, with core CPI at 1.8% above expectations. Meanwhile,...
Germany Annual CPI Inflation Declines to 1.9% in February Vs. 2% Expected
Germany's flash CPI data showed annual inflation easing to 1.9% in February, undercutting the 2% market forecast. The month‑on‑month CPI rose 0.2%, while the ECB’s preferred HICP climbed 0.4% monthly and posted a 2.0% annual rate, also missing expectations. The...
NZD/USD Holds Gains Around 0.6000 as US Dollar Falters on Tariff Concerns
The New Zealand dollar extended its rally for a third straight session, hovering around the 0.6000 level against the US dollar during Asian trading. The move reflects pressure on the US dollar as President Trump defended tariffs and the IMF warned...
US Dollar Index Falls to Near 97.50 as White House Policy Doubts Linger
The U.S. Dollar Index slipped to around 97.50 during Asian trading, marking a second straight session of decline amid White House policy doubts. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union remarks defended and expanded Section 122 tariffs to 10 %, adding trade‑related...
Australia CPI Expected to Point to Sticky Inflation, Supporting Hawkish Stance
Australia’s January consumer price index is expected to rise 3.7% year‑over‑year, a slight dip from December’s 3.8%. The forecast includes a Trimmed Mean CPI of 3.3% YoY, unchanged from the prior month, highlighting persistent core inflation. The Reserve Bank of...