Week Ahead: Digesting Last Week's Evolving Developments
Last week saw a fragile de‑escalation in US‑Iran talks while oil prices fell 7‑9%. The Federal Reserve’s new chair avoided forward guidance, and nine of 18 officials signaled at least one more rate hike, sending the two‑year Treasury up 13 bps and lifting the dollar. The Bank of Japan raised its overnight rate to 1% but the yen continued to weaken, and the euro slipped below $1.15 amid rising US yields. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar became the worst‑performing G10 currency, and the Australian dollar hovered near $0.70 amid mixed data.
Dollar Glows After the Fed's Hawkish Hold
The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold, keeping policy steady while signaling roughly 40 basis points of tightening for the year, which lifted US yields and the dollar. The greenback surged to multi‑month lows against the euro ($1.1460), yen (¥160.90)...
Investors Don't Wait for Details to Celebrate US-Iran Agreement
Investors are betting on a tentative U.S.–Iran agreement despite vague terms, driving a broad risk‑on rally. Oil prices fell to two‑month lows, while equities, bonds and most G10 currencies rallied, and the dollar slipped to new three‑year lows against the...
Week Ahead: Surging Greenback on Robust Jobs Data, While ECB Hike Seen as a Done Deal
The U.S. dollar surged to two‑month highs after a stronger‑than‑expected jobs report and ahead of May CPI data, while the euro slipped below $1.16 as markets price in a European Central Bank rate hike to 2.25%. The Bank of Canada...
New Fed May Sap Market's Reaction Function to US Jobs Report
The market is bracing for the U.S. May jobs report, which Bloomberg forecasts will add only 88,000 jobs—well below the 150,000 average of March and April. With new Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the helm, the report is expected to have little...
Softer Oil, Softer Greenback
A tentative cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon, which notably excludes Hezbollah, has raised cautious optimism for broader regional de‑escalation and may influence US‑Iran diplomatic overtures. Oil markets remain steady, with July WTI hovering around $95 per barrel, reflecting limited demand...
Geopolitical Hopes Underpin Risk Appetites
Investors are buoyed by hopes for a Middle‑East de‑escalation, pushing oil prices about $3 lower and lifting equity markets in most regions except Japan, China and Hong Kong. The dollar is mixed: the New Zealand dollar surged 0.75% after a hawkish...
Week Ahead: US Economic Resilience Supports the Dollar
U.S. economic activity rebounded sharply, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker suggesting a 4.3% annualized pace in Q1 2026, outpacing Bloomberg’s median forecast of 2.1%. The stronger outlook lifted Fed‑funds futures, implying an 85% probability of a rate hike this...
Asia and Europe Were More Skeptical About Developments in the Strait of Hormuz than the US
The United States announced it will not carry out the planned air strike on Iran, prompting the dollar to claw back most of its earlier losses and pushing 10‑year Treasury yields above 4.6%. Oil prices remained firm, with July WTI...
Week Ahead: Trump-Xi and US-China CPI
Investors are betting that the Middle East cease‑fire will hold, lifting risk assets as oil prices retreat. WTI slipped 7% to about $95 a barrel and Brent fell 6.6% to $101, reversing two weeks of gains. The week’s data focus...
The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit
The offshore yuan rose nearly 5% against the dollar last year, with the onshore unit gaining about 4.25%, positioning the currency second among emerging‑market peers. The People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate at CNY6.8487, the lowest level...
May Day: Market Looks for US Leadership
US markets entered Friday with the dollar weakening after a probable ¥5.4 trillion ($34.5 bn) yen intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro climbed toward $1.1750 while sterling rebounded above $1.36, reflecting shifting expectations after five G10 central banks met. Futures now price...
New Iranian Proposal Helps Bolster Risk Appetites
An unexpected Iranian proposal has revived hopes of a diplomatic resolution with the United States, prompting a shift toward risk‑on assets. The U.S. dollar weakened, allowing the euro to climb back above $1.17 and keeping the yen in a narrow...
Week Ahead: Dollar and Stocks Due for Corrections?
US equity markets pushed to fresh record highs as progress in US‑Iran talks and a tentative cease‑fire between Israel and Lebanon lifted risk appetite. Meanwhile, WTI crude slipped 7.6% last week, briefly breaching $79 a barrel after a steep March...
Hope Dashed, Risk Appetites Slashed Ahead of Long Holiday Weekend for Many
President Trump’s address failed to lift market optimism, leaving risk appetite severely compressed ahead of a long holiday weekend. The US dollar surged, pushing the yen toward the 160‑per‑dollar mark while the euro stalled near $1.15 and sterling slipped below...