Short-Term Pairs Trade Favours the Dollar
The market is adjusting to heightened geopolitical risk after coordinated US‑Israeli strikes on Iran, which have effectively shut the Hormuz Strait and intensified regional drone attacks. These developments are pushing oil prices higher for a longer period, bolstering the U.S. dollar as investors seek safety. Consequently, gold slipped to $5,095 an ounce, down $76, while silver fell to $83.30, down $2.75. Comex silver futures now show negligible trading volume and open interest at a 20‑year low, indicating a stark lack of speculative activity.
The Oil Price
Oil is trading at just 26% of its 1950 post‑war real value, making it exceptionally cheap despite a nominal price that has multiplied 38 times since then. The only period it was cheaper in real terms was during the Covid‑19...
Gold Shortages in China
Markets reacted to the US‑Israel strike on Iran by pushing the dollar higher, which pulled gold and silver lower. In European trading, gold slipped to $5,090 per ounce, down $230, while silver fell to $82.70, down $11. Shanghai silver premiums...
Interview with Dunagun Kaiser
Alasdair Macleod warns that an escalating conflict with Iran could ignite a global financial crisis, driving energy prices higher and pushing bond yields sharply upward. He argues that U.S. equities are perched in a dangerous bubble vulnerable to rapid correction....
The Real Commodity Story
Under the Bretton Woods gold standard, oil was effectively pegged at about $2.60 per barrel, delivering remarkable price stability from 1950 until the system’s collapse. When the United States abandoned the gold‑linked dollar in the early 1970s, oil prices became...
Interview with Andrew Maguire of Kinesis
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod and Andrew Maguire of Kinesis dissect the ongoing silver squeeze, highlighting how massive short positions in China and robust physical demand are forcing paper markets to the brink. They explain the eastward shift of price...
Gold and Silver Recovering
The episode reviews a recent rally in gold and silver prices, noting modest gains in Europe and unusually low trading volumes on the U.S. Comex market due to a holiday. It highlights the scant speculative interest and low open interest...
Silver Paper's Problem
The episode examines the severe liquidity crunch in both physical and paper silver, highlighted by a sharp drop in COMEX open interest and widening spreads that deter speculators. It explains how banks and traders are constrained by the high value...
Interview with Triangle Investor
In this episode, economist Alasdair Macleod outlines a 2026 outlook where a tightening silver market, driven by massive physical shortages and surging demand from China and India, is creating a sharp premium between Shanghai and Western markets. He warns that...
I Talk Silver with Danny of CapitalCosm
In this episode Alasdair Macleod talks with Danny from CapitalCosm about the current state and outlook for silver as an investment. They explore silver's price dynamics, its relationship to gold, and the macroeconomic factors—like inflation, monetary policy, and industrial demand—shaping...
Silver Post-Smash Outlook
Alasdair Macleod analyzes the aftermath of a recent sharp drop in silver derivatives, noting that hedge fund long positions are near a 20‑year low while physical liquidity in COMEX and London vaults is extremely thin. He warns that a massive...
Watch Out for Japan’s Election on Sunday
The episode analyzes the recent collapse in gold and silver prices, attributing it to extremely low speculative open interest on COMEX and a lack of buyers, which created a price vacuum. It notes that the market has now stabilized as...
Interview with Jasmine of Money Magpie
In this episode, Alasdair Macleod discusses the potential collapse of the fiat currency system, drawing parallels to the Weimar Republic's hyperinflation and the subsequent surge in gold prices. He argues that fiat money depends on confidence and credit, but governments...
Interview with Jesse Day of Commodity Culture
In this episode, host Alasdair Macleod and guest Jesse Day of Commodity Culture explore the theory that China is amassing silver to eventually back the yuan with a silver standard, a move that could accelerate the dollar’s decline. They discuss...
Counterparty Risk in Silver Exposed
The episode examines the recent price dynamics of precious metals, noting gold's steady rise to $4,606 and silver's rapid surge to $90.75, driven by heightened open interest on the COMEX. It highlights the emerging counterparty risk in the silver market,...