Drilling for Bargains
New Constructs highlights a natural‑gas producer whose peer‑leading profitability, low‑cost inventory and robust free‑cash‑flow generation are starkly undervalued. The firm benefits from a projected doubling of U.S. LNG exports through 2050, which should keep domestic gas prices above $4/MMBtu in winter months. Its NOPAT margin has surged from 12% to 41% since 2024, lifting ROIC to 28% while free cash flow of $992 million comfortably funds $808 million of share repurchases. Yet the market prices the stock as if earnings will permanently drop 60%, creating a sizable risk‑reward gap.
Don’t Touch This Hot Stove
New Constructs flagged a retailer that plunged 28% after missing earnings, warning investors to avoid the falling knife. While the company touts rising adjusted EBITDA to $206 million, its economic earnings have deteriorated to a $80 million loss, revealing a gap between...
Watch Our Earnings Recap: Analyzing Expectations for Cisco, Cerebras, Applied Materials, Petrobras, Brookfield, and More
The latest Earnings Watch Party used a reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model to surface the cash‑flow expectations baked into the share prices of Cisco, Cerebras, Applied Materials, Petrobras, Brookfield and others. By comparing those expectations with reported earnings, the...
Focus List Stocks: Long – Update 5/13/26
The Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio delivered a 20% outperformance versus the S&P 500 in the first quarter of 2026. The model has a track record of beating the benchmark by 35% in 2021 and 11% in 2022. It aggregates...
Starved Supply Feeds Strong Profit Growth
Supply of nitrogen fertilizer remains tightly constrained by geopolitical tensions, export quotas and chronic underinvestment, while demand stays largely inelastic. The global market leader leverages low‑cost U.S. natural gas to achieve industry‑leading margins, growing revenue 11% and NOPAT 29% annually...
Model Portfolio Performance Through 1Q26
New Constructs released its Q1 2026 model‑portfolio results, showing that several of its strategies outperformed their respective benchmarks. The small‑cap short strategy beat the short Russell 2000 by 7%, while the large‑cap long portfolio topped the S&P 500 by 4%. The Focus List...
Live Podcast Friday: Is Earnings Season Meeting Expectations?
The New Constructs team is hosting a live podcast on May 8 at 12 pm ET to dissect this earnings season’s results. While several heavyweight names reported, even a double‑beat by Palantir couldn’t lift its stock, underscoring how lofty expectations are baked...
Palantir’s Beats Are “Not Good Enough”
Palantir reported a 1Q26 earnings beat on both revenue and profit, yet its shares fell after CEO David Trainer’s BBC interview. Analysts attribute the decline to the market’s extreme growth expectations baked into the stock’s valuation. A reverse discounted cash...
Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio: April 2026
Kyle Guske’s April 2026 Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio presents 30 core large‑, mid‑ and small‑cap equities selected for dividend growth potential. The large‑cap list includes high‑profile names such as Tesla, Netflix and Disney, with analyst coverage ranging from 10 to...
Separating Energy Sector Winners From Losers
New Constructs highlights a top‑rated energy‑focused ETF that concentrates on profitable, undervalued companies while trimming exposure to weaker holdings. The fund delivers an 8% return on invested capital, a PEBV multiple of 1.8 and a six‑year market‑implied valuation gap, far...
AI and Investing: David Trainer’s Presentation at Harvard Business School
Assistant Professor Yuan Zou hosted a Harvard Business School panel featuring New Constructs CEO David Trainer, Hudson Labs' Kris Bennatti, and Alumni Ventures' Ron Levin to discuss AI's disruptive potential in investing. The conversation covered how AI could replace analysts...
How to Avoid the Worst Sector ETFs 2Q26
The article warns investors that the surge of sector ETFs often masks hidden risks. It outlines three red flags—insufficient liquidity (under $100 million AUM), fees above the 0.46% sector average, and poor underlying holdings—that can erode returns. Using proprietary earnings‑based data,...
How to Find the Best Sector ETFs 2Q26
The article highlights the overwhelming number of sector ETFs—403 across 11 sectors, averaging 36 choices per sector—making selection increasingly complex. It stresses that ETFs can differ dramatically, with technology funds ranging from 21 to 2,495 holdings, leading to varied risk...
This Mid Cap Value Fund Stands Out for the Wrong Reasons
New Constructs’ Danger Zone report flags a Mid‑Cap Value fund as Very Unattractive, despite its 3‑star rating from Morningstar. The fund allocates 62% of assets to stocks rated Unattractive‑or‑worse, far above the 47% share in its low‑cost benchmark. It also...
Podcast: Why This Mid Cap Value Fund Is in the Danger Zone
New Constructs’ senior analyst Kyle Guske discusses a mid‑cap value mutual fund that has slipped into the “danger zone.” The fund’s recent performance trails the broader market, its expense ratio exceeds peers, and a handful of stocks dominate its portfolio....