Use the WTO to Address Global Fertilizer Supply Constraints Related to the Iran War
The war in Iran has crippled the global fertilizer supply chain, affecting roughly 30% of worldwide trade that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Export bans by China, Russia and Turkey have pushed fertilizer prices higher and sparked fears of food shortages. WTO Director‑General Ngozi Okonjo‑Iweala urges members to use the organization’s trade‑policy tools—such as a focused Trade Policy Review and the agriculture committees—to gather data and coordinate responses. Past crises, from the 2008‑09 financial shock to COVID‑19, show the WTO can quickly provide transparent reporting that guides policy.
Amid Wartime Disruptions, Most Emerging-Market Central Banks Will Follow the Fed
The IMF’s April World Economic Outlook trimmed emerging‑market (EM) growth for 2026 to 3.9% from 4.2% and nudged inflation expectations up to 5.5%, while advanced economies remain near 1.8% growth. The Iran war has amplified energy‑price shocks and a volatile...
Bring Back the Helium Reserve—Before the Next Shock Hits
Iran-linked attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex in March shut down a facility that supplies roughly one‑third of the world’s helium, sending prices soaring and tightening supplies for high‑tech sectors. Helium’s unique physical properties make long‑term stockpiling difficult, and the United...
Why Foreign Policy Is the Central Question of Brazil’s Next Election
Brazil’s October presidential race pits incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, turning the contest into a battle over foreign‑policy direction rather than a simple left‑right showdown. The outcome will determine whether Brazil controls the terms of access to...
How One Small American Manufacturer Is Dealing with Trump’s Tariffs (Episode 211)
In a recent Trade Talks episode, a 150‑employee metal‑fabrication firm in Ohio detailed how it navigated the wave of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. The company restructured its supply chain, moving roughly 40% of imported steel to domestic producers,...
Book Launch: World War Trade: Conflict, Containment, and the Emergent World Trading Order
Richard Baldwin’s new book *World War Trade* argues that the 2025 US‑China trade weaponization did not end globalization but reshaped it. While markets fell and supply chains strained, the majority of economies responded with restraint and a surge of new...
Warwick McKibbin on Building Economic Projections for Better Policy
Warwick J. McKibbin, a leading global economic modeler, joined PIIE’s Anjali V. Bhatt to discuss how econometric projections inform U.S. policy decisions, including tariff scenarios. He explained the mechanics of modern economic modeling and its growing relevance for real‑time policymaking....
Implementing the Digital Euro Project
The European Central Bank is advancing its digital euro project, originally launched in 2020, as EU legislation clears the path for implementation. The digital currency is envisioned as a cash‑like token to complement physical euros in everyday transactions. ECB officials...
Central Banking for Open Economies in a Changed World
The Peterson Institute for International Economics convened a high‑level panel of central bank governors from New Zealand, Spain, Korea and Switzerland to examine open‑economy monetary policy in a rapidly shifting financial and geopolitical climate. Moderated by former Bank of Ireland governor...
The Realities of Economic Security
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a live discussion titled “The Realities of Economic Security,” moderated by Anjali Bhatt. Experts Warwick McKibbin, Cullen Hendrix, and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard presented macroeconomic scenarios on the Middle East conflict, commodity‑supply vulnerabilities, and Europe’s policy dilemma between...
Global Economic Prospects: Spring 2026
The Peterson Institute for International Economics released its spring 2026 Global Economic Prospects, outlining the latest outlook for the United States and major world economies. Karen Dynan warned that the ongoing Middle East conflict and volatile energy prices are tightening growth...
Decentering the Dollar: A Conversation
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑profile conversation titled “Decentering the Dollar,” featuring former Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot and renowned economist Maurice Obstfeld. The panel examined how the Trump administration’s trade and geopolitical shifts could undermine...
AI and the Imminent Transformation of Work: New Dimensions and Analyses
The Peterson Institute for International Economics convened senior fellows and Google’s chief economist to assess AI’s looming impact on work. Anton Korinek warned that policymakers may underestimate the speed and breadth of AI‑driven change, while Fabien Curto Millet linked cutting‑edge technology trends to...
International Imbalances Again? Still? Forever?
The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) convened a high‑level discussion titled “International Imbalances Again? Still? Forever?” to examine why global trade and current‑account gaps persist. Moderated by Maurice Obstfeld, the panel featured Joseph Gagnon, Hélène Rey, and Alan Taylor,...
Trade 360 Degrees: Trade Winds LIVE From DC!
Global trade faces heightened tariffs, divergent industrial policies, and a weakened WTO, creating turbulence across supply chains. At the same time, recent free‑trade agreements and renewed multilateral efforts are opening fresh opportunities. The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a...
The Future Economic Architecture of the Eurozone
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a high‑level panel on the future economic architecture of the eurozone. The discussion featured Spain’s finance minister Carlos Cuerpo Caballero, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, and senior economists Olivier Blanchard and Ángel...
Industrial Policy for Development
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a briefing on a new World Bank report examining the resurgence of industrial policy in the 21st‑century. The study finds developing economies, especially upper‑middle‑income nations, are the heaviest users, allocating an average of...
Can Global Cooperation Survive a Fragmenting World?
The Peterson Institute for International Economics will host a virtual event titled “Can global cooperation survive a fragmenting world?” on March 24, 2026. Communications manager Anjali V. Bhatt will interview senior fellow Kimberly Clausing to examine how the United States’...
Olivier Blanchard on Eurobonds and Optimism for Europe's Future
Senior economist Olivier Blanchard will discuss Europe’s Eurobonds proposal at a virtual Peterson Institute event on April 14, 2026. He will examine how the bond framework could deepen fiscal integration and address rising defense expenditures. Blanchard also addresses broader challenges...
How Critical Are Critical Minerals in the Brazil-US Economic Relationship?
Policymakers and experts convened to examine how critical minerals shape the Brazil‑US economic partnership. Brazil’s abundant rare‑earth and battery‑grade mineral reserves are increasingly vital to the United States’ energy‑transition agenda. The discussion highlighted supply‑chain vulnerabilities, especially reliance on China, and...
US-China Trade Update: Imports, Exports, Fentanyl Flows, and Beyond
The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosted a virtual briefing that delivered fresh 2025 trade‑flow data between the United States and China, alongside analysis of fentanyl shipments and export‑control policies. Experts Chad Bown, Marcus Noland, Mary Lovely and Martin Chorzempa...
India's 20 Years of GDP Misestimation: New Evidence
A new working paper reveals that India’s GDP figures have been systematically misestimated over the past two decades. Growth from 2005 to 2011 was likely understated by roughly 1–1.5 percentage points, while the 2012‑2023 period appears overstated by about 1.5‑2...
Are Data Centers Driving up Utility Costs? (Episode 27)
Utility electricity rates in the U.S. have risen faster than inflation since 2022, driven primarily by higher natural‑gas prices, pandemic‑induced residential demand, and under‑invested transmission infrastructure. While data centers add load in specific markets, they do not align with the...
The New Age of Western Industrial Policy: Is There a New Playbook?
A virtual “Trade Winds” event on March 11, 2026 gathered top economists and policymakers to assess the resurgence of Western industrial policy. Speakers outlined a growing toolbox—including procurement preferences, subsidies, and public‑private partnerships—driven by competitiveness, innovation, and economic‑security concerns. The measures aim...
The Trump Administration's America First Investment Pledges
The Trump administration announced an "America First" investment drive that has secured more than $5 trillion in pledges from foreign governments for projects across defense, technology, energy and infrastructure. The deals are framed as reciprocal arrangements, linking tariff relief to partner...
AI + Work: Understanding AI's Impact on the Labor Market
Leading research institutions—Yale's Budget Lab, Brookings' Hamilton Project, and the Peterson Institute for International Economics—are convening a virtual event to dissect AI's influence on employment. The discussion will spotlight the most informative data sources, from real‑time job postings to wage...
The State of US-Japan Economic Relations in a Changing Global Economy
A recent webinar examined the evolving economic partnership between the United States and Japan, highlighting trade, investment, and supply‑chain dynamics amid shifting global patterns. Experts discussed how post‑pandemic realignments and technological change are reshaping bilateral ties. The dialogue also addressed...
Douglas Irwin on Tariffs in America and the Supreme Court Case
Supreme Court ruled on Feb 20, 2026 that the International Economic Emergency Powers Act does not give the president authority to impose tariffs. The decision directly challenges the wave of tariffs enacted by President Donald Trump during his second term,...