Rystad Energy

Why Iranian Oil Could Be the Biggest Energy Story of the Decade, with Aditya Saraswat

The podcast examines how the Iran‑U.S. conflict reshapes upstream dynamics across the Gulf, featuring Ryad Energy’s Aditya Saraswat. He frames the war’s trajectory around Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity, arguing that all other diplomatic moves are secondary to a durable resolution on that issue. Saraswat quantifies the disruption: roughly 12 million barrels per day of crude and 14 million barrels of liquids are offline, alongside 85 million tonnes of LNG capacity. Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq bear the brunt, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia rely on bypass pipelines—COP and the east‑west route—to limit production cuts to about a third of pre‑conflict levels. Iran initially profited from premium pricing but now faces storage constraints as its output falls. Key remarks highlight that “logistics, not geology, will make or break recovery,” and that offshore development is the “new onshore” as onshore fields age. The UAE’s exit from OPEC and its aggressive brownfield and greenfield expansions underscore a strategic pivot toward resilient export routes and higher output. The fallout implies a staggered return to normal: oil could rebound by year‑end, but gas recovery may stretch three to five years, demanding $60 billion of additional investment beyond the region’s $120 billion annual baseline. Diversified infrastructure, domestic EPC capacity, and offshore/unconventional projects will be crucial for investors and global energy security.