Is the Iran War Hurting the US Economy? Markets Eye Retail Sales Data
Markets reacted cautiously after the U.S. and Iran broke their cease‑fire, with oil prices spiking and equities, bonds and gold slipping. Traders noted a rapid drop in S&P 500 futures volume, the lowest since early April, indicating uncertainty over policy direction. The upcoming U.S. retail‑sales report is expected to show a 1.4% jump in March, double February’s gain, but analysts fear higher energy costs may be crowding out other consumer spending. The data could reveal whether the Iran conflict is already dampening household consumption.
Is the Stock Market Wrong About the Iran War?
U.S. equities have surged, with the S&P 500 gaining about 10.4% since late‑March lows, as investors bet a two‑week cease‑fire will end the US‑Iran conflict. Meanwhile, the producer‑price index showed a modest 0.5% monthly rise, but energy components spiked 8.5%, highlighting...
Netflix Earnings Preview - Price Hikes & Subscriber Growth
Netflix is set to report Q1 2026 results on April 16, with analysts forecasting $0.76 earnings per share on $12.16 billion of revenue, a 15% year‑over‑year increase. The company’s ad‑supported tier is projected to double to $3 billion, positioning advertising as the...
Bank Earnings: Goldman Sachs Sets the Tone, But Can JPM and Others Surprise?
Goldman Sachs kicked off the U.S. bank earnings season with a near‑record profit, reporting $5.33 billion in equities revenue, a 27% year‑over‑year rise, while its FICC revenue fell 10%. The bank’s investment‑banking fees surged 50% to $2.84 billion, but the stock slipped...
Top 10 Stocks to Watch: April 2026
The S&P 500 E‑Mini futures are down 3.43% year‑to‑date, hitting a low of $6,353.25 on March 31 before rebounding to around $6,665 in early April. Technical analysis points to a critical $6,500 support level, with a break potentially targeting $6,360, while a hold...
Delta Earnings: Fuel Costs, Refinery Edge and the Guidance Number That Matters
Delta Air Lines will report its Q2 results on April 8, with the stock trading about 14% below its February peak of $76.39. The carrier’s full‑year EPS guidance stays in the $6.50‑$7.50 range, a key metric that will shape investor sentiment....
Iran War Trade Roils Markets as Trump Narrates the Conflict
U.S. equity markets rallied this week, with the S&P 500 up about 2.1% and 10‑year Treasury yields falling 0.4%, as investors briefly hoped for a swift end to the U.S.–Iran war. President Donald Trump’s aggressive comments, however, reignited volatility, pushing crude...
Cherry Picks: ZB or ZN? A Smarter Way to Compare Treasury Volatility
The article proposes a systematic way to compare volatility between the 30‑year ZB Treasury future and the 10‑year ZN Treasury future by juxtaposing each contract’s implied volatility (IV) with its dollar value of a one‑basis‑point move (DV01). ZB’s DV01 of...
Cherry Picks: Why VXX Underperforms the VIX Contango and the Futures Roll
VXX tracks VIX by holding front‑month and next‑month /VX futures, rolling about 4.5 % daily. Because the futures curve is in contango most of the time, the roll forces VXX to buy higher‑priced contracts, creating a persistent drag that causes the...
WASDE Overshadowed as War Pushes Fertilizer Prices Higher: Can Corn Rally?
The March WASDE report was largely unchanged, with U.S. corn ending stocks holding at 2,127 million bushels and global corn stocks edging higher. Meanwhile, the Middle‑East conflict is pushing nitrogen‑based fertilizer prices up, raising concerns over planting costs. Higher fertilizer costs...
Adobe Earnings Preview: Software Scare Behind Us?
Adobe is slated to report Q1 results on March 12, with consensus forecasts of $5.86 earnings per share on $6.27 billion revenue. The company’s stock has fallen 22% this year, trading near $270, yet it posted record FY2025 operating cash flow...
Top 5 Stocks to Watch: March 2026
The S&P 500 E‑Mini futures are down 1.54% year‑to‑date, trading in a sideways pattern with support around $6,700 and resistance near $6,950. Traders are advised to watch for a break below $6,700 or a rally toward $6,950 and $7,000, which could signal...
Cherry Picks: Why the Equal-Weight S&P 500 Is Beating the Market-Cap Index
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal‑Weight ETF (RSP) has outperformed the market‑cap heavyweight SPY over the last six months as the so‑called “Mag 7” mega‑caps lagged. February recorded a record inflow into RSP, reflecting growing investor interest in a more balanced exposure to...
NVDA Earnings Preview: AI Revenue & Blackwell Demand
NVIDIA is set to report earnings on Feb 25, with analysts forecasting $65 billion in revenue and $1.51 earnings per share, reflecting over 70% year‑over‑year growth. The company’s data‑center segment, now $51.2 billion, surged 66% YoY, driven by soaring demand for Blackwell GPUs...