News•Mar 8, 2026
The War’s Next Phase: Five Indicators That Matter Most
General Miller outlines five critical indicators to gauge the next phase of the ongoing conflict: the ability to intercept missiles and cheap Shahed drones, energy flow disruptions and traffic through the Straits of Hormuz, the evolving role of Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish forces, regional religious sentiment exemplified by Grand Ayatollah Sistani’s statements, and rising casualty figures. He stresses that while early operations showed overmatch, the war’s complexity will generate branching plans and demand nuanced statecraft. The analysis serves as a framework for thinking about the conflict rather than prescribing conclusions.
By The Cipher Brief
News•Mar 2, 2026
The Hormuz Standoff: Global Energy Flow Severs After 'Epic Fury' Strikes
The Strait of Hormuz, a 21‑mile narrow waterway, was shut after a severe incident dubbed “Epic Fury.” The closure halted the transit of roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, about one‑fifth of global consumption. Heightened tensions between Iran and...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Mar 1, 2026
Breaking Down Our "Red October" Moment for AI
The article warns that the Department of War’s rush to embed frontier AI models in national‑security systems mirrors the "Red October" fiasco, where safety mechanisms were disabled and catastrophic failure followed. It argues that without a mission‑aligned, fit‑for‑purpose evaluation framework,...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 27, 2026
Purpose-Built or Perilous: Congress Faces a Critical FBI Headquarters Decision
Congress is weighing a pivotal decision on the FBI’s next headquarters as the aging Hoover Building must be replaced. Lawmakers are considering the Ronald Reagan Building, but security experts argue it cannot satisfy Interagency Security Committee Level V standards. The article highlights...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 25, 2026
Where Crime and Terror Meet: Australia’s Illicit Tobacco Market
Australian security agencies have linked Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to two high‑profile firebomb attacks in 2024‑25, exposing a direct crime‑terror nexus. The attacks were facilitated through Australia’s lucrative illicit tobacco market, a $10 billion underground industry driven by the...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 24, 2026
Building the Talent Pipeline for America’s Security Future
The opinion piece warns that a shrinking federal workforce is widening talent gaps for U.S. national security. It highlights that government, academia, nonprofits, international bodies, think tanks, and industry all provide viable pathways for young professionals. The author stresses the...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 24, 2026
The Cognitive Battlefield Is Now Decisive Terrain
The Pinnacle conference highlighted cognitive warfare as the new decisive terrain, where narrative dominance can outweigh kinetic force. Repeated, low‑level disinformation creates cognitive attrition that erodes public resolve faster than traditional cyber attacks. Decision‑centric, agentic AI and open, modular systems...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 22, 2026
Alliances, Ukraine, and China’s Growing Challenge
At the Munich Security Conference, former Defense official Evelyn Farkas warned that the transatlantic alliance’s cohesion is under strain as European partners grow distrustful of U.S. commitments. She urged a clear reaffirmation of American support for NATO and called for...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 13, 2026
Inside the High-Stakes U.S. Pressure Campaign on Iran
The Trump administration is deploying a second aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, to join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Middle East, intensifying pressure on Iran over its nuclear, missile and regional proxy activities. Former intelligence manager Norman...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 13, 2026
Confidence, Interoperability, and the Limits of U.S. Decision Systems
The article argues that the United States’ national‑security decision‑making suffers from a systemic confidence illusion: analysts routinely express 80‑90 percent confidence that only materializes at 50‑70 percent accuracy. This mis‑calibration stems not from data scarcity but from institutional architectures that...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 12, 2026
A Path to Understanding Autonomy in Defense Technology
The column argues that military autonomy should augment, not replace, commander authority by delegating specific tasks while retaining legal and ethical responsibility. It highlights three pillars—low‑cost, near‑exquisite systems, cross‑vendor interoperability, and a DevOps‑style hardware development model—as essential for trust and...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 12, 2026
Standing Up to a Spy: My Run-In with Aldrich Ames
In 1993 a mid‑level CIA analyst refused to approve a Counter‑Narcotics conference in the Caucasus, citing security and logistical risks. The analyst’s objection drew the ire of senior officer Aldrich Ames, who repeatedly confronted him despite the analyst’s credentials. Months later...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 11, 2026
Russia’s Foreign Fighter Pipeline: How Moscow Exploits Global Poverty to Feed Ukraine’s Frontlines
Russia is increasingly turning to the Global South to replenish its dwindling ranks in Ukraine, recruiting thousands of migrants with promises of work, money, or citizenship and then sending them to the front lines. Ukrainian intelligence has identified over 18,000...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 9, 2026
The Former Head of NSA on the Future of U.S. Cybersecurity
Retired Gen. Paul Nakasone, former NSA director and U.S. Cyber Command commander, discussed his doctrine of persistent engagement, its role in safeguarding recent U.S. elections, and the evolving cyber threat landscape. He highlighted the need for broader public‑private partnerships, a...
By The Cipher Brief
News•Feb 6, 2026
Xi Jinping Tightens Grip as China’s Military Purge Deepens
Chinese President Xi Jinping intensified his anti‑corruption and loyalty campaign by dismissing two of the People’s Liberation Army’s top commanders in January 2026. General Zhang Youxia, senior vice‑chairman of the Central Military Commission, and General Liu Zhenli, head of the...
By The Cipher Brief