Clipping Coins
Global M2, the broadest measure of money supply, is reaching unprecedented levels in U.S. dollars, with acceleration across major regions. The article links this expansion to historical practices of coin debasement, showing that governments have long inflated currencies to fund wars and spending. It argues that the current fiat surge will sustain upward pressure on oil and other commodities, continuing the classic commodity cycle. By tracing parallels from ancient Rome to the British Empire, the piece warns that continued money creation may stoke inflation and market volatility.
117 Years of Oil & Gas Capex
Western oil and gas companies are projected to hit their highest capital‑expenditure growth this year, after which spending will taper off through the remainder of the decade, according to consensus forecasts. A five‑year moving‑average view smooths out the 2022 surge,...
Productivity in the Permafrost
U.S. oil well productivity is entering a slowdown, with some analysts suggesting the cycle may have turned negative. In contrast, Canadian operators continue to post gains, driven by four tailwinds: rising productivity, reduced capital requirements, higher oil prices, and a...
Consolidate to Create Value
The piece uses the 1980s‑1990s oil‑field‑services (OFS) market as a blueprint for today’s shareholders. After the 1986 oil‑price collapse, upstream capex was slashed, many drillers and service firms folded, and the survivors grew through consolidation. By the early 1990s spending...
Seasonal Ceasfire
The Crude Chronicles estimates oil’s fair value at about $80 per barrel, using a marginal‑cost framework that emphasizes rising extraction costs as well‑productivity slows. The analysis highlights two near‑term catalysts: full refinery restarts within 2‑3 months, which should keep crack...
From Glut & Doom to an Oil & Gas Boom (2Q26 Chart Pack)
The author’s Q2 2026 chart pack, titled “From Glut & Doom to an Oil & Gas Boom,” projects that oil and gas equities will generate real total returns of 7‑9% per year over the next ten years. The forecast hinges on...
TED Talk
The article revisits the TED spread— the gap between LIBOR and U.S. Treasury bills—as a historic gauge of inter‑bank trust that foreshadowed the 2007 financial crisis. It argues that today’s equivalent warning signal is the crack spread, particularly the jet‑fuel...
KISSing CVX and COP (FREE POST)
Rob Connors highlights a long‑standing pattern linking Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP) to the broader market. Over a century, CVX’s price relative to the S&P 500 has oscillated between roughly 2 % at lows and 9 % at highs, while COP’s ratio has...
Pop a CAPM in Non-O&G Equities.
Markets are increasingly pricing equity risk premiums based on inflation expectations rather than the Federal Reserve’s real‑rate policy, a shift that tilts the advantage toward oil and gas (O&G) equities. Global oil and gas revenues have risen above 4% of...
Hedgeh-Oligopoly
The oilfield services sector is splitting into two strategic camps. Hedgehog‑type offshore firms are staying disciplined, concentrating on core capabilities and shunning the AI‑driven capex rush. Fox‑type companies are scattering resources into AI projects, creating complexity and exposure to a...
The Straits of Neom
The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscores a decade of heightened geopolitical risk and a shift toward de‑globalization in energy markets. Historical trade data reveals that such disruptions have recurred and eventually subside as the global economy adjusts....
A Political Pitch for European Oils
European voters’ climate concern has surged to 14%, reflecting a post‑Russia‑Ukraine energy shock that reshapes political sentiment. The shift has prompted a wave of incumbent defeats and signals a move away from aggressive ESG policies toward energy security. European oil...
Value in Oil Shocks
Energy stocks typically fall in absolute terms during an oil‑driven recession but still outperform the broader S&P 500. Historical data shows a three‑month rally after a shock, a four‑month decline, and a relative bottom about seven months later. The 1973‑74 OPEC...
A Defensive Rally.
The episode examines the surprising year‑to‑date rally in oil and gas equities, highlighting that despite a "risk‑off" environment, energy stocks are outpacing all S&P sectors. The host attributes this to improving momentum, stronger global manufacturing PMIs, a weaker U.S. dollar,...
Industry Needs $90/Bbl.
The episode explains that the oil industry needs oil prices around $90 per barrel to achieve a 10% return on capital, the threshold where oil stocks typically outperform the S&P 500. It highlights that current reinvestment rates are just above...