IT'S FINALLY TIME TO LEAN INTO CORPORATE CREDIT
Kevin Muir, known as “the macro tourist,” announced a sizable short position against corporate credit spreads, buying distressed pink‑ticket bonds as a hedge. He argues that rising interest rates, slowing global growth, and tightening credit conditions will force high‑yield spreads wider. Muir’s bet reflects confidence that default risk is underpriced and that investors will demand higher yields. The move signals a broader shift toward more defensive credit strategies as markets brace for tougher financing conditions.
GEOPOLITICS DOESN'T CHANGE PRICES IN THE LONG-RUN?
The piece argues that geopolitical shocks, while capable of causing short‑term commodity price spikes, do not alter the long‑run pricing trajectory, which is anchored in supply‑demand fundamentals, technological progress, and investment cycles. It cites historical data showing oil, copper and...
REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE ARE VASTLY EXAGGERATED
Kevin Muir argues that claims of the business cycle’s demise are overstated, noting that cyclical patterns still shape macroeconomic outcomes. He points to a recent tipping point where labor market slack is eroding, causing unemployment to rise faster than expected....
FISCAL STIMULUS IS DISAPPOINTING
The latest fiscal stimulus package falls short of expectations, delivering modest tax cuts and limited infrastructure spending. Analysts highlight that the measures amount to less than 0.5% of GDP, far below the scale needed to offset slowing growth. The package...
WHAT'S GOING ON UNDER THE COVERS?
The article "WHAT'S GOING ON UNDER THE COVERS?" teases an investigative look at hidden dynamics shaping today’s market landscape. It promises visual data, likely through the featured graphic, to uncover trends that aren’t immediately visible. While the full text isn’t...
M'tourist Private Feed Recap
In this private feed episode, Kevin Muir reviews the latest macroeconomic data and market trends, focusing on recent inflation reports, central bank policy shifts, and emerging market dynamics. He highlights how unexpected CPI readings are reshaping bond yields and discusses...
WATCH YOUR BIDS (S2026 E03)
In this episode, Goldman Sachs discusses the growing pains in the quantitative investing space, while Carlyle warns that AI exposure has become oversized across many portfolios. Scott Bessent revisits his earlier stance on Warsh’s balance sheet reduction, indicating a potential...
MAG7 FREE CASH FLOW COLLAPSE
The episode examines the recent collapse in free cash flow among the MAG7—Microsoft, Apple, Google (Alphabet), Amazon, and Meta—highlighting how their once robust cash generation has sharply deteriorated. It explores the drivers behind this decline, including macroeconomic headwinds, higher capital...