FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched a historic 400 million‑barrel emergency oil release, the largest in its 52‑year history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent crude rose $6.50 to $98.68, reflecting market skepticism that the conflict will be brief. Meanwhile, the U.S. private‑credit market now holds about $2 trillion in assets, with retail investors accounting for roughly one‑third, and defaults are beginning to climb. Prominent financiers such as Lloyd Blankfein and Jamie Dimon warn that the credit environment could echo pre‑2008 vulnerabilities.
Buying Time Till Iran Surrenders
Tomorrow the 32 International Energy Agency members will vote on a proposal to tap up to 400 million barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves, a release larger than the 240‑million‑barrel drawdown after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The IEA holds 1.8 billion...
MARKET CALL: A Loopy Stock Market
The equal‑weight S&P 500 has surged to fresh record levels this year, while the market‑weight index remains stuck near 7,000. The divergence reflects a broad rotation from AI‑focused high‑tech stocks to lower‑tech, physical‑asset sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials. Rising...
The Great Valuation Rotation Of The Roaring 2020s
Since the pandemic, large‑cap stocks have outpaced mid‑ and small‑cap peers, but that dynamic shifted late last year as investors flagged riskier earnings and stretched valuations for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, SMidCap earnings have begun to climb while their valuations...
DEEP DIVE: 10 Reasons To Remain Optimistic About The US Economy
The Treasury estimates average tax refunds will rise to about $4,000 this year, driven by the retroactive tax cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Higher refunds boost disposable income, reigniting consumer spending after a recent flattening. Meanwhile, Baby...
AI Disrupts Financials. Bad Data Misleads On Economy.
Altruist, a wealth‑management startup, rolled out AI‑driven tax‑planning tools, prompting a sharp sell‑off in legacy financial firms such as Charles Schwab, LPL Financial and Morgan Stanley. The reaction reflects investor anxiety that AI could erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Despite...
Emerging Markets Continuing To Emerge
The US MSCI index has underperformed global peers in 2025, ending a year of relative strength. Investors are shifting toward high‑growth emerging‑market stocks such as South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Taiwan, while Japan rallied 5.7% after a decisive election. The...
DEEP DIVE: Meet Kevin Warsh
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair in May. Warsh, praised for his professional pedigree and youthful appearance, is expected to secure a smooth Senate confirmation once the president ends his criticism...
Mini Tech Wreck Or Repeat Of The Big One?
Technology stocks have tumbled sharply, prompting fears of a repeat of the 2000‑2002 tech bust. Analysts argue the current landscape differs, as major hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta—are slated to spend roughly $650 billion on AI infrastructure by 2026, with the...
Too Many Bulls Getting Shocked As AI Turns On Humans
Investors Intelligence’s Bull/Bear Ratio climbed to 4.13, signaling an over‑bought market from a contrarian viewpoint. Despite the high sentiment, the S&P 500 broadened, with Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Energy, Industrials and Materials posting record highs. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Value index appears...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Meet Kevin Warsh
In a new webcast, Dr. Ed interviews Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s leading candidate for Federal Reserve chair. Warsh argues the U.S. economy is entering a productivity‑driven growth phase that requires supply‑side, low‑tax, low‑regulation policies. He rejects the Phillips Curve, labeling...
Economy & Earnings Are Heating Up
The latest Yardeni Quick Takes forecasts a robust 2026, targeting the S&P 500 at 7,700 by year‑end and 10,000 by 2030. Treasury yields are expected to hover between 4.25% and 4.75%, while gold is projected at $6,000 per ounce now and...