How Transitory Is The Inflation Problem Ahead?
Reuters reported that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell below 10% of normal levels despite a US‑Iran ceasefire, as Tehran warned vessels to stay within its waters. The S&P 500 rebounded, gaining 7.6% after a 9.1% pullback from late January to March, driven by a 9.6% jump in the Magnificent 7 stocks. Meanwhile, bond markets are watching inflation, which stalled around 3% year‑over‑year in February after pre‑war CPI held at 2.4% and PPI stayed above expectations. Analysts argue productivity must offset any war‑related price pressure for the rest of the year.
As Yogi Said: 'It Ain't Over Till It's Over' & 'It's Déjà Vu All Over Again'
Negotiators from the United States and Iran are set to meet in Islamabad to discuss a cease‑fire, after weeks of aerial strikes that failed to topple Tehran’s regime. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still commands the Strait of Hormuz, keeping...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Anatomy Of The US Labor Market
The latest U.S. jobs report showed a rebound in payrolls and a dip in the unemployment rate, but Dr. Ed and Elias argue the headline looks misleading. Their webcast points out that the inflation‑adjusted Earned Income Proxy fell as price...
Oil Price Shock Boosts March Prices-Paid PMIs
An oil‑price shock linked to escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the combined prices‑paid indexes for the March ISM Manufacturing and Non‑Manufacturing PMIs back to late‑2022 levels. The surge signals that both producer‑price and consumer‑price inflation are...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Bond Vigilantes Are Mobilizing Globally
A wave of bond‑vigilante activity is reshaping yield curves globally after the Middle‑East war triggered an unprecedented oil‑supply shock. Investors are aggressively repricing short‑term rates, with the U.S. front end appearing especially oversold. Dr. Ed and contributing editor Elias Griepentrog...
Eurozone's Latest Energy Crisis
President Donald Trump postponed Obliteration Day, extending the pause on potential Iranian airstrikes and keeping oil prices elevated. The Eurozone, which imports roughly 12% of its petroleum and 8% of its gas from the Persian Gulf, is feeling a renewed...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: From Powell To Warsh
The webcast examines Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and his likely dovish stance under presidential pressure. It models three possible durations of the Iran conflict to gauge their impact on monetary policy under Warsh...
Thanks For The Memory
President Donald Trump postponed a threatened strike on Iran, prompting a brief market rally, but analysts quickly shifted focus to the memory‑chip sector. AI‑driven demand for high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced DRAM has turned the traditionally cyclical memory market into...
Why Is Gold Melting?
Gold prices plunged to $4,508 per ounce, a sharp drop from the $5,311 close on March 2, even as geopolitical tensions and U.S. budget deficits rise. The decline coincided with Pentagon officials confirming a potential $200 billion supplemental request for the Iran‑related...
Did Powell Trigger A Taper Tantrum In The Stock Market Today?
Oil prices surged from $100 to $110 a barrel after Israel attacked Iran's largest gas processing plant, while the Fed kept rates steady and Powell delivered a neutral press conference. The S&P 500 dropped 91 points, slipping below its 200‑day...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Is Less Dire Strait Easing Market Fears? (With Special Guest Eric Wallerstein)
Dr. Ed’s latest webcast, featuring Eric Wallerstein, assesses the impact of the Strait of Hormuz tension on energy markets. He argues that the perceived blockade is less severe, with oil supply disruptions roughly half of worst‑case estimates. Iran’s decision to...
Dire Strait & The Home Front
Oil prices rebounded to roughly $100 a barrel, dragging U.S. equities and bonds lower as the conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran intensifies. The S&P 500 has slipped 4.4% from its January 27 peak and the Nasdaq 6.4% from...
FINANCIALS: Black & Blue Owl
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has launched a historic 400 million‑barrel emergency oil release, the largest in its 52‑year history, after the Strait of Hormuz closure removed roughly 20 million barrels per day from global supply. Brent crude rose $6.50 to $98.68,...
Buying Time Till Iran Surrenders
Tomorrow the 32 International Energy Agency members will vote on a proposal to tap up to 400 million barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves, a release larger than the 240‑million‑barrel drawdown after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The IEA holds 1.8 billion...
MARKET CALL: A Loopy Stock Market
The equal‑weight S&P 500 has surged to fresh record levels this year, while the market‑weight index remains stuck near 7,000. The divergence reflects a broad rotation from AI‑focused high‑tech stocks to lower‑tech, physical‑asset sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials. Rising...
The Great Valuation Rotation Of The Roaring 2020s
Since the pandemic, large‑cap stocks have outpaced mid‑ and small‑cap peers, but that dynamic shifted late last year as investors flagged riskier earnings and stretched valuations for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, SMidCap earnings have begun to climb while their valuations...
DEEP DIVE: 10 Reasons To Remain Optimistic About The US Economy
The Treasury estimates average tax refunds will rise to about $4,000 this year, driven by the retroactive tax cuts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Higher refunds boost disposable income, reigniting consumer spending after a recent flattening. Meanwhile, Baby...
AI Disrupts Financials. Bad Data Misleads On Economy.
Altruist, a wealth‑management startup, rolled out AI‑driven tax‑planning tools, prompting a sharp sell‑off in legacy financial firms such as Charles Schwab, LPL Financial and Morgan Stanley. The reaction reflects investor anxiety that AI could erode traditional advisory revenue streams. Despite...
Emerging Markets Continuing To Emerge
The US MSCI index has underperformed global peers in 2025, ending a year of relative strength. Investors are shifting toward high‑growth emerging‑market stocks such as South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and Taiwan, while Japan rallied 5.7% after a decisive election. The...
DEEP DIVE: Meet Kevin Warsh
President Donald Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair in May. Warsh, praised for his professional pedigree and youthful appearance, is expected to secure a smooth Senate confirmation once the president ends his criticism...
Mini Tech Wreck Or Repeat Of The Big One?
Technology stocks have tumbled sharply, prompting fears of a repeat of the 2000‑2002 tech bust. Analysts argue the current landscape differs, as major hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta—are slated to spend roughly $650 billion on AI infrastructure by 2026, with the...
Too Many Bulls Getting Shocked As AI Turns On Humans
Investors Intelligence’s Bull/Bear Ratio climbed to 4.13, signaling an over‑bought market from a contrarian viewpoint. Despite the high sentiment, the S&P 500 broadened, with Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Energy, Industrials and Materials posting record highs. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Value index appears...
WEEKLY WEBCAST: Meet Kevin Warsh
In a new webcast, Dr. Ed interviews Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s leading candidate for Federal Reserve chair. Warsh argues the U.S. economy is entering a productivity‑driven growth phase that requires supply‑side, low‑tax, low‑regulation policies. He rejects the Phillips Curve, labeling...
Economy & Earnings Are Heating Up
The latest Yardeni Quick Takes forecasts a robust 2026, targeting the S&P 500 at 7,700 by year‑end and 10,000 by 2030. Treasury yields are expected to hover between 4.25% and 4.75%, while gold is projected at $6,000 per ounce now and...