Bring On the Jet Fuel Shortages
Peter Zeihan warns that even if the Iran ceasefire holds, a months‑long global jet‑fuel shortage is already baked in. The shutdown of medium‑heavy sour crude production in Kuwait, Iraq and Saudi Arabia—key feedstock for jet fuel—has removed the primary supply source. With no easy refinery substitution, airlines across China, Japan, India, Australia and other Asia‑Pacific markets are cancelling flights for the coming months. Zeihan projects the bottleneck could linger for a year if further conflict erupts.
Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia
The Iran war has slashed Persian Gulf oil exports to roughly 10‑12 million barrels per day, creating a global supply shortfall and pushing crude prices above $100 a barrel. While Russia initially saw a windfall from higher prices, Ukrainian drone strikes...
How to End American Power
Peter Zeihan argues that Donald Trump’s recent call for nations to secure their own Persian Gulf oil marks a decisive break from the post‑World War II security architecture the United States has provided. By urging allies to develop independent naval forces,...
So You Want to Take Iran’s Oil…
Peter Zeihan warns that any U.S. attempt to seize Iran’s oil would be far more complex than President Trump suggests. The country’s two main energy hubs—offshore South Pars gas field and the oil‑rich Khuzestan province—would require either shutting down domestic...
Russia Draws American Blood in Iran
Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, striking a U.S. E‑3G AWACS aircraft that provides critical air‑space surveillance. The strike succeeded because Russian military reconnaissance satellites supplied Iran with precise targeting data....
The Death of the First-Time Home Buyer
First‑time homebuyers are being squeezed out as U.S. housing prices continue to outstrip wage growth, while inventory remains scarce. Construction activity has failed to keep pace with demand, and the aging Boomer cohort is staying in their homes, further tightening...
The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs. Long Term
Peter Zeihan argues the U.S. dollar is set for a multi‑decade rise, driven by unrivaled naval power, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and a looming manufacturing expansion. In the near term, however, policy choices—tight immigration, high tariffs, regulatory...
U.S. Boots on the Ground in Nigeria
On December 25, the United States conducted its first airstrike against a jihadist stronghold in northern Nigeria, followed by the deployment of roughly 100 U.S. advisors to train local counter‑terrorism forces. The initial team is expected to be supplemented by...
Armenia’s Not Getting Off the Struggle Bus Just Yet
Armenia’s aging Soviet‑era nuclear reactor leaves the country on the brink of an energy crisis, and Moscow’s dwindling support after the Ukraine war has removed its traditional security backstop. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance recently signed a nuclear cooperation deal...
I’ve Got This Bridge to Sell You…
The Gordie Howe Bridge, a Canada‑financed toll crossing linking Detroit and Ontario, is slated to open this year as an alternative to the congested Ambassador Bridge. President Trump has threatened to block the launch unless the U.S. federal government acquires...
India Takes on the Shadow Fleet (Bonus Video)
India's navy has begun seizing shadow‑fleet oil tankers within its exclusive economic zone, capturing three vessels since early February. The shadow fleet, a network of roughly 1,000 de‑commissioned tankers, moves 3‑4 million barrels of sanctioned crude daily from Russia, Iran...
Japan Sees the Writing on the Wall
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two‑thirds majority in the lower house, giving Prime Minister Fumio Takahashi a strong personal mandate and near‑total legislative control. The win enables swift policy action, including the start of constitutional amendment proceedings to...