Positive Housing Demand and a Preview of the Fed Meeting
Why It Matters
Resilient housing demand combined with a potential dovish Fed shift could lower borrowing costs, bolstering consumer spending and real‑estate activity while shaping rate‑sensitive asset valuations.
Key Takeaways
- •Pending home sales hit multi-year high despite higher mortgage rates
- •New listings rose above 80,000, signaling spring market strength
- •Mortgage spreads tightened, keeping 30-year rates near 6% volatility low
- •Fed’s final Powell press may shift power to dovish Kevin Warsh
- •Market watches 10-year yield and oil prices for policy clues
Summary
The episode with analyst Logan Mohtashami reviews recent housing‑market tracker data and looks ahead to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, marking Jerome Powell’s final press conference. Data show pending home‑sale contracts at a multi‑year peak, new listings exceeding 80,000, and inventory rising modestly, while mortgage rates have slipped below 6.25% and spreads narrowed to historic lows. Purchase‑application activity posted double‑digit weekly and yearly growth, and active‑inventory growth has slowed enough to keep price pressures in check. Mohtashami highlighted that “life finds a way” as demand persisted despite war‑related uncertainty, high oil prices and inflation above target. He noted the 10‑year Treasury yield hovering around 4.33% and mortgage spreads improving from 211 to 193 basis points, the best levels since the early 1980s. The housing data suggests a healthier spring market, while the Fed’s policy outlook could pivot from Powell’s neutral stance to a more dovish tone under Kevin Warsh, influencing future rate cuts, mortgage rates, and broader credit conditions.
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