SaaS
How I Forecast SaaS Revenue (My Exact Model & Process After 1,000+ Forecasts) | The SaaS CFO
•December 10, 2025
Original Description
If you’ve ever struggled to build an accurate, defendable SaaS revenue forecast… this is your masterclass.
I just wrapped a popular live webinar walking through exactly how I forecast subscription, usage, and services revenue after completing 1,000+ forecasts and helping hundreds of SaaS companies. In this on-demand session, I take you behind the scenes of my full process—step-by-step.
Whether you’re the founder building your first model, an FP&A leader tightening your forecasting engine, or a RevOps pro needing better revenue clarity, this session gives you the blueprint.
Inside the video, we cover:
🔹 The 4 critical SaaS finance data sources your forecast depends on
• Financial data
• Bookings
• People data
• Customer / revenue data (MRR schedules)
🔹 Why a clean SaaS P&L is the foundation of forecasting
Stop relying on the default QBO/NetSuite P&L—your board hates it. I walk through how to SaaS-ify your chart of accounts, structure revenue streams, and set up a consumable P&L format.
🔹 The power of a proper MRR schedule (your forecast’s “gold”)
You’ll learn how to convert raw invoice data into a clean MRR schedule, build dollar-based and logo-based retention waterfalls, and use them as the engine of your revenue model.
🔹 How to layer subscription revenue forecasts with precision
Instead of “we’ll grow 10%,” we break down each layer:
• New MRR
• Re-activations
• Expansion
• Downgrades
• Churn
• Different ACVs for each layer
This is how you create a forecast you can defend to investors.
🔹 Forecasting usage revenue (simple when it’s predictable, messy when it’s not)
I show you how to approach usage modeling whether it’s recurring or highly seasonal, and when to rely on rate × volume logic.
🔹 Forecasting services revenue—the hardest revenue stream
Learn how to model backlog, billable FTE capacity, pull-through rates, and how new customers drive implementation revenue. Most teams get this wrong—I show you how to get it right.
🔹 A walkthrough of my full Excel model
You’ll see the exact tabs, logic, waterfalls, and assumptions I use in the model downloaded thousands of times. I also highlight how the full forecast connects back into a clean, consumable SaaS P&L.
If forecasting feels overwhelming—or if your current model feels messy, inconsistent, or hard to defend—this session will help you reset your foundation and build a forecasting engine you can trust every month.
To learn more about Ben check out the links below:
📬 Subscribe to Ben’s daily metrics newsletter:
📧 Subscribe to Ben’s SaaS newsletter:
📘 SaaS Metrics courses:
👥 Join Ben’s SaaS community:
🔗 Follow Ben on LinkedIn:
#saas #thesaascfo #podcast #saasmetrics #saasmetricsschool #benmurray
Comments
Want to join the conversation?
Loading comments...