Report: Crowded Orbits – A Call to Action on Space Debris

Why It Matters

Unchecked debris threatens the profitability of the global space economy and the reliability of essential services such as communications, navigation, and Earth observation. Immediate mitigation is essential to avoid a costly, systemic disruption.

Key Takeaways

• Orbital objects doubled in two decades
• 29% collision probability by 2032 in key zones
• Debris could cost $42.3 billion in ten years
• Report backed by WEF, Saudi Space Agency, LeoLabs
• Urgent mitigation needed to protect global space infrastructure

Pulse Analysis

The rapid expansion of commercial launch activity has transformed low‑Earth orbit into a crowded highway, where even small fragments travel at 7 kilometers per second. As the number of satellites, mega‑constellations, and spent rocket stages climbs, the probability of cascade collisions—often called the Kessler syndrome—rises sharply. Recent modeling shows that without decisive intervention, certain altitude zones could face a near‑30% chance of a catastrophic impact by 2032, jeopardizing everything from broadband internet to climate monitoring.

Beyond the physical danger, the economic ramifications are staggering. The report’s forecast of a $42.3 billion "hidden tax" reflects not only direct damage to assets but also higher insurance premiums, delayed launches, and lost revenue from downstream services. Operators may need to allocate additional budget for collision avoidance maneuvers, while investors could see valuation pressures on companies reliant on uninterrupted satellite operations. This financial burden underscores why space debris is no longer a niche engineering issue but a macro‑economic risk factor.

Policymakers and industry leaders are now confronting a pivotal choice: invest in active debris removal, enforce stricter end‑of‑life standards, or risk escalating costs and service interruptions. International frameworks, such as the UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, must be reinforced with binding regulations and incentives for compliance. Private firms like LeoLabs are already providing high‑resolution tracking data, enabling more precise avoidance strategies. Collaborative initiatives, exemplified by the Saudi Space Agency’s involvement, signal a growing consensus that safeguarding orbital space is essential for the sector’s sustainable growth.

Report: Crowded Orbits – A Call to Action on Space Debris

By Leonard David · February 15 2026

The number of objects in orbit has surged over the past two decades, driven largely by the expansion of commercial space activity.

This critical orbital infrastructure is under threat. Congestion from space debris is rising, creating a strategic vulnerability for the entire planet.

Without mitigation, the probability of a serious collision occurring by 2032 is potentially 29 % in certain altitude zones.

Those are a few observations by a new report — Clear Orbit, Secure Future: A Call to Action on Space Debris — from the World Economic Forum and the Center for Space Futures. They have jointly led several community consultations to assess the escalating risk and economic cost of space debris, particularly the growing collision risk it presents over the coming decade.

Image credit: World Economic Forum/Center for Space Futures

Economic forecast

The report is a product of a close collaboration with the Saudi Space Agency and LeoLabs to develop an orbital population model, and with Novaspace to produce an economic forecast that quantifies the potential economic impact of space debris on the global space economy.

The new forecast projects that space debris could impose a direct cost of up to $42.3 billion over the next decade, a “hidden tax” on the space economy.

To access the full report, go to:

https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Clear_Orbit_Secure_Future_2026.pdf