US Must Return to Moon to Counter ‘Belligerent’ China, Think Tank Warns

Why It Matters

Control of lunar infrastructure underpins future space security, economic competitiveness, and national defense, making the race a critical geopolitical priority.

Key Takeaways

• Mitchell Institute warns US could lose lunar strategic edge to China
• China aims for crewed Moon landing by early 2030s, building ILRS
• Artemis II no earlier than Sep 2025; Artemis III no earlier than 2026
• Report urges faster timeline and deeper commercial‑partner involvement
• Missing Moon foothold could weaken US national security and competitiveness

Pulse Analysis

The race to the Moon is increasingly being framed as a security contest rather than a scientific venture. Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army has integrated lunar objectives into its broader military modernization, with the Chang’e‑5 sample‑return mission already demonstrating deep‑space capability and a crewed landing targeted for the early 2030s. Together with Russia, China plans an International Lunar Research Station that could serve as a logistics hub for resource extraction and potential dual‑use technologies. Analysts see this as a bid for strategic dominance in the cislunar domain.

The United States, meanwhile, is grappling with a fragmented Artemis schedule and a budget that has struggled to keep pace with the program’s ambitions. Artemis II, the first crewed flight, will not launch before September 2025, and the lunar landing of Artemis III is pushed to no earlier than 2026. Delays have sparked criticism from think tanks such as the Mitchell Institute, which argues that a slower cadence hands the initiative to China. The report calls for an accelerated timeline and a deeper partnership with commercial firms that can deliver habitats, landers, and in‑situ resource processing at lower cost. In addition, Congress is weighing a dedicated lunar‑infrastructure appropriation to close the funding gap.

If the United States fails to establish a sustained presence on the Moon, it risks ceding not only prestige but also critical infrastructure that underpins future deep‑space missions, satellite servicing, and defense posturing. A permanent lunar foothold would enable the development of navigation, communications, and potentially weaponizable assets that could shift the balance of power. Such a strategy would also bolster U.S. leadership in emerging markets for lunar mining and tourism. Policymakers are therefore urged to treat lunar development as a national‑security priority, aligning funding, procurement, and regulatory frameworks to ensure the U.S. remains the pre‑eminent spacefaring nation.