Acceleration Towards Deglobalisation Reshapes Metal Supply-Demand Security

Why It Matters

Deglobalisation reshapes metal markets, forcing investors to prioritize supply‑chain security and domestic critical‑mineral exposure, which could redefine capital flows in the mining sector.

Key Takeaways

• Deglobalisation forces western investors to reconsider metal sourcing locations
• Market shows consolidation; summer expected low volatility but active opportunities
• Iran, Russia, and Strait of Hormuz tensions remain headline risks
• Resource nationalism drives interest in domestic critical minerals like tungsten
• Prospector’s detailed drilling disclosures signal strong pipeline for investors

Summary

The episode of The Compass focuses on how accelerating de‑globalisation is reshaping the security of metal supply‑demand fundamentals. Derek McFersonen and Sam PZ argue that traditional reliance on overseas producers is eroding, prompting a strategic rethink for miners and investors.

They note that after an early‑year over‑bought rally, equity and commodity indices have entered a two‑to‑three‑month consolidation phase. Seasonal patterns suggest a quiet summer for metals, with energy peaking later, while headline risks – renewed fighting in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and lingering Russia sanctions – remain largely priced out of markets.

A former Joint Chiefs chairman, speaking at the KIORD conference, surprised listeners by recommending gold and silver, underscoring geopolitical uncertainty. The hosts also highlighted Prospector’s transparent drilling program, which they view as a model of operator quality, and cited resource‑nationalism trends driving interest in western‑based critical minerals such as tungsten and antimony.

For investors, the takeaway is clear: jurisdictional risk and supply‑chain resilience now dominate allocation decisions. Reducing exposure to Australia and Asia‑Pacific, reallocating to assets with secure domestic processing, and targeting companies with strong disclosure and development pipelines are presented as the prudent path forward.

Original Description

Recording date: 26th May 2026

Olive Resource Capital views the current phase in commodity markets as a healthy, seasonal consolidation following a strong start to the year. While metals and mining equities have largely moved sideways, this reduced volatility is seen as constructive rather than concerning. According to President and CEO Samuel Pelaez and Executive Chair Derek Macpherson, calmer market conditions often create a gradual upward bias, even as broader investor attention shifts toward high-performing sectors like technology.

Olive Resource adjusted its portfolio to reflect rising geopolitical risks, particularly those linked to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, exposure to Australia and Asia-Pacific mining equities has been significantly reduced, with capital redirected toward cash or regions offering stronger supply-chain reliability. This shift reflects a broader conviction that deglobalisation is accelerating, increasing the strategic importance of mining assets located in politically aligned and stable jurisdictions.

Deglobalisation trends driven by pandemic-era disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, and export restrictions on critical minerals are reshaping investment priorities. Assets in Western countries, even for commodities once considered uneconomic to produce domestically, are gaining value due to their security of supply.

Within this context, Olive Resource Capital is emphasizing company-specific opportunities over macro-driven bets. Recent portfolio additions, including White Gold Corp, Prospector Metals, Goldsky Resources, Valhalla Metals, and ValOre Metals, were selected for strong management teams and near-term catalysts such as drill results, resource estimates, and project advancements.

Macpherson and Pelaez also highlighted a consistent seasonal strategy in junior mining equities: accumulating positions in the spring as exploration begins, and trimming exposure in the fall when results are released and financing activity increases. Overall, the firm’s approach centers on jurisdictional reliability, operational catalysts, and disciplined timing in a market where broad momentum remains limited.

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