Seeking Interest for Weekly Shadow Activist Stock Analyses
Who would like to see regular Senjin Capital analysis of “shadow activist” ideas? That is, where existing activists are involved, but may not have said anything publicly about their thesis? I have seen some complaints that there aren’t enough actionable stock ideas being posted on fintwit these days, and too much AI slop. Like and repost, and if this post gets enough interest we will start publishing at least an idea a week. The first co I am thinking of is largeish, relatively liquid, and in the attractive logistics space.
Value Investors Finally Facing Overlooked Market Reality
A reality most value investors choose to ignore but I feel this is finally starting to change https://t.co/IcebLm2h9e
Graham's Edge: Process Over Story, Let Statistics Win
Graham's edge wasn't genius. It was a process: 1️⃣ Find broadly undervalued securities, not one "perfect" pick 2️⃣ Let margin of safety do the work, not your story 3️⃣ Repeat until the math wins Most investors want a great story. Graham wanted great odds. Stories...
Stay Invested: Best Market Days Follow the Worst
The S&P 500 just ripped higher, a 99.8th percentile 10-day run. And this is exactly why time in the market beats timing the market. Because the market doesn’t send invitations before its best days. Miss just a handful of them, the explosive rebounds,...
JetBlue Founder Predicts Bankruptcy, No Buyers This Year
JetBlue Founder Warns The Airline May Go Bankrupt This Year — And Says Nobody Will Buy It - View from the Wing https://t.co/fFvy77qBrc
Beta Tweaks and Cash Raise Boost Portfolio Performance
Tweaks to beta yesterday (raising cash) Sold some VEA -0.3% Today GSG -0.3% Today GLD -1.2% Today SPY +0.8% Today Net net those worked.
Diversifiers Shine as Equities and Bonds Re‑correlate
With equities and bonds positively correlated again (a déjà vu to 2022), it’s good to see that the group of diversifiers that I have in my hypothetical 60/20/20 model have been doing their job. The chart below shows the “crawling”...
Small and Mid‑Cap Yields Surpass Large Caps
Asset location implications: Dividend yields are now higher in small and mid caps vs. large caps https://t.co/UPCV1LiXSB
Thorndike's Power Ratio Reveals Tiny Firms' Extreme Multiples
I like Thorndike's Power Ratio: TTM revenue growth rate divided by EV/EBITDA Multiple. PE has averaged 0.75x. Search funds 2-3x. You can get some wildly high numbers in small public companies. What's the highest you've seen?
OpenAI, Anthropic Poised to Hit $2T Valuations
What are my current valuation predictions for OpenAI and Anthropic? OpenAI was valued at $28B in April 2023. Its latest funding round puts it at $852B. Anthropic was valued at $4B in early 2023. Today, it’s worth $380B. In my...
Liquidity Surge Signals Tech and Crypto Rally Ahead
The Everything Code suggests that over time the NDX has a 97% correlation with GMI Total Global Liquidity. Total Liquidity is at all time highs. NDX is following. We have been long tech stocks in GMI (and RV Pro) since Dec 2022...
Starlink Drives 75%‑80% of SpaceX’s $1.75T Value
Here's what most people miss about SpaceX: 75–80% of its value isn't rockets. It's Starlink. The satellite internet business that nobody believed in is now the backbone of a $1.75 trillion company.
Equities Rally on Hope, Valuations Still Under Pressure
Equity markets gapped higher last week on hopes that the negotiations in Pakistan would lead to some sort of détente. The week closed with an S&P 500 index at 6816, a mere 2.6% below its all-time high set on January...
Amid Volatile Headlines, Revisit Your Investment Thesis
It’s getting increasingly challenging to write my WAAR these past few Sundays, given how much the headlines keep lurching back and forth. Truce one day, threats of extinction the next, and back and forth we go. My inclination these days is to...
Luxury Giants Face Structural Demand Reset
Hermes $RMS just cratered 13% at one point of today's trading session. Kering is struggling to find its footing. LVMH is struggling too. The luxury "black hole" is officially here. We aren't just seeing a soft quarter here and there;...
