Will Stocks Outperform Again? Inside the Equity Risk Premium Debate

Why It Matters

Understanding whether the equity risk premium will persist informs long‑term portfolio strategies and validates the need for high‑quality, independent research that underpins fiduciary decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Equity risk premium debate drives future asset allocation strategies
• FAJ celebrates 80 years, reinforcing rigorous, peer‑reviewed finance research
• Panel blends academic insights with practitioner perspectives on market returns
• CFA Institute emphasizes research's role in ethical, informed investment decisions
• Interactive Q&A and QR tools encourage audience participation in risk discussions

Summary

The CFA Society New York hosted a special event marking the 80‑year anniversary of the Financial Analyst Journal and the 60‑year anniversary of the CFA Institute Research Foundation, centering on the question “Will the equity risk premium in a century resemble that of the last?”

Speakers highlighted the enduring relevance of the equity risk premium (ERP) as a benchmark for expected stock returns, referencing Jeremy Siegel’s “Stocks for the Long Run,” recent academic critiques, and practical viewpoints from Kroll’s Carla Nunes and columnist Jason Zweig. The panel underscored how evolving markets, technology, and global dynamics test traditional ERP assumptions.

Notable moments included a video from CFA Institute CEO Margaret Franklin stressing research integrity, William Goetzmann’s remarks on the journal’s legacy, and anecdotes about the first FAJ issue’s mission to improve statistical techniques and ethical standards. The event also featured live Q&A via QR codes, encouraging real‑time audience input.

The discussion reinforces that rigorous, peer‑reviewed research remains essential for calibrating risk expectations, guiding portfolio construction, and maintaining investor confidence. As the industry confronts new data sources and faster cycles, the ERP debate will shape asset‑allocation frameworks for the next generation of professionals.

Original Description

What can 80+ years of financial research really tell us about the future of investing?

This opening session opens the CFA Institute Research and Policy Center and CFA Society New York event to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Financial Analysts Journal and the 60th anniversary of the CFA Institute Research Foundation.

The discussion sets up one of the most important questions in finance:

Will the equity risk premium in the future look anything like the past?

You’ll hear the historical context behind modern investing, why research and data matter more than ever, and how shifts in technology, globalization, and market structure could reshape long-term returns.

This is the foundation for everything that follows, and it frames the entire debate around risk, return, and long-term investing.

Watch the full session and continue with Part 2.

Learn more about the topics discussed:

- Financial Analyst Journal – Stocks for the Long Run? Sometimes Yes, Sometimes No: https://cfainst.is/4mbehbR

- Enterprising Investor – Stocks for the Long Run? Setting the Record Straight: https://cfainst.is/4v7jFRA

- Research Foundation - Stocks for the Long Run? New Evidence, Old Debates: https://cfainst.is/4m9rTo8

- Research Foundation - Stocks for the Long Run Revisited: Dividends and “The Return Nobody Got”: https://cfainst.is/4lYTkAZ

Participants:

- Jeremy J. Siegel, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Chapters & Key Moments:

- 00:00 Welcome & event kickoff

- 00:45 Why this event matters

- 01:37 CFA Institute & FAJ milestones

- 02:18 Origins of Financial Analysts Journal

- 04:18 Framing the equity risk premium debate

- 06:05 Speaker lineup & panel overview

- 08:01 CEO message: why research matters

- 10:32 Importance of trust, data, and rigor

- 17:02 Evolution of financial research

- 24:29 Why long-term data is critical