Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – March 9th, 2026

Key Takeaways

• USDCAD tested resistance at 1.3750
• Pair posted second consecutive weekly loss
• Middle East strikes heightened risk aversion
• Elliott Wave suggests downward corrective wave
• Traders watch 1.3700 support level

Pulse Analysis

The USDCAD currency pair has become a focal point for market participants as it wrestles with a pronounced resistance barrier near 1.3750. This level, historically acting as a ceiling for bullish momentum, has now repelled buying pressure, leading to a modest but notable price retreat. The pair’s recent trajectory—marking a second straight weekly loss—signals a shift from earlier optimism and underscores the importance of technical thresholds in shaping short‑term forex dynamics.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East have injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, prompting investors to reassess risk exposure. Escalating strikes have heightened volatility, prompting a flight to safety that typically benefits the U.S. dollar while pressuring commodity‑linked currencies like the Canadian dollar. As risk appetite wanes, the CAD’s correlation with oil prices and broader risk sentiment becomes more pronounced, amplifying the downward pressure on USDCAD and reinforcing the relevance of macro‑political factors in currency valuation.

Within this environment, Elliott Wave practitioners identify a corrective wave forming beneath the 1.3750 resistance, suggesting a potential move toward the 1.3700 support zone. The wave count points to a five‑wave impulse that has likely completed its upward thrust, now entering a retracement phase. Traders can leverage this insight by aligning stop‑loss orders above the resistance and targeting the identified support, while remaining vigilant for any reversal cues that could signal a new impulse wave. Integrating wave theory with fundamental risk assessments offers a balanced approach to navigating the current volatility in USDCAD.