EURUSD to See Further Relief Before the Next Drop
•March 4, 2026
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Why It Matters
Holding these support zones reduces downside risk and creates a clear path for bullish continuation, shaping trader positioning and risk management in the heavily traded EURUSD market.
Key Takeaways
- •EURUSD holds above weekly OTE external low.
- •Short positions discouraged until price reaches premium.
- •1.1660 identified as pivotal rebalance level.
- •1.1760 next target if bullish momentum continues.
- •15‑minute chart shows early relief signs.
Pulse Analysis
The euro‑dollar pair’s recent price action underscores the relevance of Smart Money Concepts in today’s liquidity‑driven markets. By anchoring above the weekly OTE’s external low, EURUSD demonstrates resilience against broader risk‑off sentiment that has pressured risk assets this quarter. This technical foothold aligns with macro fundamentals—such as the European Central Bank’s cautious stance and the Federal Reserve’s rate‑path expectations—providing traders a confluence of structural and fundamental support that often precedes sustained moves.
A core tenet of the analyst’s framework is the discount‑vs‑premium rule, which dictates that short entries are avoided while price remains in discount territory. The 4‑hour chart’s channel support confirms a discount environment, suggesting that sellers are likely harvesting liquidity rather than initiating a new downtrend. By waiting for price to re‑enter premium zones—specifically the imbalance and fair‑value gaps above the 50% level—traders align with the market’s natural auction process, reducing exposure to premature reversals and enhancing trade‑execution efficiency.
Looking ahead, the 15‑minute chart reveals an internal change of character, positioning 1.1660 as the pivotal rebalance point. A clean break above this level could trigger a cascade of buying into premium, targeting the next resistance cluster around 1.1760. Conversely, failure to hold 1.1660 may invite renewed liquidity sweeps and a retest of the weekly OTE. For professional traders, monitoring these micro‑structural cues offers a disciplined edge in managing entry timing, position sizing, and stop‑loss placement within the EURUSD’s tightly contested range.
Original Description
I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader.
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EURUSD just tapped a major higher-timeframe support area, and now we’re starting to see internal bullish structure shift on the lower time frames.
On the weekly chart, price is trading inside OTE from the external high to the external low.
On the daily, we’re still holding above the key external low that keeps the broader structure intact.
And on the 4-hour chart, price is reacting from channel support while trading in discount.
That’s why, in my opinion, shorts down here are off the table.
Yes, we had a downside BOS.
Yes, sellers have been in control.
But I don’t short in discount.
If I’m looking for continuation, I need price back into premium — specifically into the imbalance and fair value gaps above the 50% level.
On the 15-minute chart, we’ve already seen an internal change of character and early signs of relief.
If EURUSD is going to rebalance inefficiencies and deliver a more efficient auction, 1.1660 is key.
Above that, 1.1760 becomes the next region to watch.
#EURUSD #forex #SMC #PriceAction #SmartMoneyConcepts
CHAPTERS
00:00 Critical Support Hit
00:19 Daily Time Frame Context
00:42 Weekly OTE Context
01:18 Daily Structure And External Low
03:04 Free SMC Strategy
03:23 4-Hour Channel Support
04:13 Why Shorts Are Off Here
06:07 Discount Vs Premium Rule
07:22 Imbalance Mitigation Plan
08:31 15-Minute Shift And Relief
10:05 Key Levels: 1.1660 And 1.1760
OTHER SMC LESSONS
BoS and CHoCH made simple
Steal my liquidity sweep entry model (beginner-friendly)
Premium, discount, and OTE explained
Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.
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