Weekly SMC Outlook: DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, XAUUSD

Why It Matters

The analysis pinpoints precise entry and exit zones for the dollar and its peers, enabling traders to capitalize on emerging trends while managing risk in a market transitioning from consolidation to directional moves.

Key Takeaways

• DXY likely to test 100.5 resistance before potential pullback
• Euro short targets between 1.15 and 1.1475 after bearish breakout
• GBP short opportunities hinge on 1.33 low and premium OTE zone
• AUDUSD imbalance around 0.6950 suggests short entry after bounce
• Gold may retest lower levels if XAUUSD fails to hold recent highs

Summary

In this weekly SMC Outlook, trader Justin Metta outlines his trade plan for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the major currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, as well as gold (XAU/USD). He emphasizes that after weeks of sideways consolidation, price action is finally providing clear directional cues, and he backs his forecasts with structural breaks, imbalances, and change‑of‑character signals.

Metta sees the DXY turning bullish, targeting the 100.5 level as a short‑term resistance before a possible pullback, while noting a longer‑term upside bias toward the 106 zone. For the euro, he recommends short positions between 1.15 and 1.1475, citing a bearish channel break and unmitigated fair‑value gaps. The pound is viewed as short‑biased, with the 1.33 low acting as a pivotal break‑of‑structure point and premium OTE zones offering entry opportunities. The Australian dollar shows an imbalance near 0.6950, suggesting a short entry after a bounce, and gold is expected to test lower levels if it cannot sustain recent highs.

Metta highlights real‑time calls made in his Discord, such as “I called a Euro short on Friday at 1.59,” and stresses the importance of observing change‑of‑character candles and BOS (break‑of‑structure) events. He repeatedly points to imbalances and fair‑value gaps as the primary drivers for his trade ideas, illustrating how these micro‑structures translate into actionable setups across the five assets.

For traders, the outlook provides concrete price targets and risk zones to monitor next week. By aligning positions with the identified structural breaks, market participants can better manage exposure in a volatile environment where the dollar’s momentum may dictate broader FX and commodity trends.

Original Description

I just launched a free 3-day SMC strategy course that walks through exactly how I trade structure, liquidity, and entries as a full-time trader.

You can access it here: https://access.dailypriceaction.com/smc-strategy

Markets are finally on the move again after weeks of consolidating, and in this SMC Outlook video I'm sharing my exact trade plan for the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, and gold (XAUUSD) for next week. We've had a lot of sideways price action across the board, but Friday's breakout changed things, and the smart-money concepts roadmap is getting much clearer.

DXY (US Dollar Index)

The US dollar index is technically bullish from an SMC standpoint following the bullish change of character on the daily timeframe. On the four hour chart we never got the pullback into the imbalance before Friday's breakout from the channel, which tells you how strong this market is right now. The area to watch next week is 100.5, where the March highs intersect with the top of the ascending channel. That's a spot where the dollar could pull back before continuing. Longer term, that change of character could open up levels like 106 over the next six to twelve months as the market works toward that daily imbalance from 2025.

EURUSD

I called the euro short in Discord on Friday from 1.1589 after the four hour close below the bottom of the bearish channel. The breakdown from that bear flag pattern puts the focus on the pocket between 1.15 and 1.1475, where we have an unmitigated fair value gap from the earlier displacement. With the bearish change of character on the daily timeframe and lower highs in place, it's shorts only for me on the euro. The plan next week is to wait for a bounce into premium, watch for mitigation of the buy side imbalances, and look for a lower timeframe shift to get short targeting the lows.

GBPUSD

The pound gave us a bearish change of character with that aggressive close below the protected low, and the close that took out the external low confirmed the internal move higher was failing. Notice how well the OTE zone (the 62% to 79% retracement) worked here, with price tapping into optimal trade entry before reversing. Everything recently is internal structure, so the bigger play is the low at 1.33. If we break that, we get a new BOS, and then I'm watching for a bounce into premium to look for short opportunities. Shorts only here as well, since I'm bullish longer term on the DXY.

AUDUSD

The Australian dollar gave us a change of character after the BOS, and now we have a new break of structure below showing continuation to the downside. The imbalance around 0.6950 is the short-term target following Friday's BOS. Next week I'm waiting for signs of a short-term bottom, then watching for a move up into premium, possibly around 0.71, to mitigate those imbalances and look for shorts on the way down.

Gold (XAUUSD)

XAUUSD has been choppy, but the change of character told us this pullback was alive and well, and Friday's continuation keeps the bearish structure intact. Same rules apply here. I'm looking for a push into the imbalance from Friday's break, then a lower timeframe change of character to get short. The target is the displacement zone below 4300, specifically the 4160 to 4200 region from those March candles. The level that negates all of this is 4600. As long as we're below that high, it's shorts only on gold.

All of this is my opinion only and not financial advice.

Chapters:

0:00 Markets Are Finally Moving

0:26 DXY Trade Plan

4:58 EURUSD Trade Plan

8:08 GBPUSD Trade Plan

12:16 AUDUSD Trade Plan

14:27 Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Plan

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SMC LESSONS

BoS and CHoCH made simple

https://youtu.be/FE1bgD9N6DM

Steal my liquidity sweep entry model (beginner-friendly)

https://youtu.be/XH4TAoLCFBk

Premium, discount, and OTE explained

https://youtu.be/UWrvexqN3w8

Disclaimer: This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading forex, crypto, and other markets involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. I am not responsible for any losses you may incur from acting on the information in this video.