China and the Iran War: Beijing's Ambitions in the Middle East

Why It Matters

China’s low‑cost, economically driven engagement in the Middle East could erode U.S. influence, reshape energy supply chains, and make Beijing an indispensable player in regional stability.

Key Takeaways

• China treats Middle East as secondary, focusing on economic interests.
• Beijing seeks energy security and geoeconomic corridors through Gulf.
• Diplomatic strategy aims to be global‑south champion, avoiding hard security commitments.
• China mediates regional disputes cheaply, e.g., Saudi‑Iran rapprochement, but limits Israel‑Palestine involvement.
• Relations with Iran remain transactional; China also deepens ties with Gulf rivals.

Summary

The podcast examines Beijing’s evolving calculus in the Middle East, especially as the Iran‑Israel war escalates. Host Henrietta Levven and scholar Aaron Glasserman argue that the region is a secondary priority for China; its core red‑line issues remain Taiwan and sovereignty, not Gulf politics. Consequently, China pursues a flexible, low‑risk posture that can accommodate shifting alliances. Key insights reveal three overlapping interest buckets: massive economic dependence on Gulf oil and gas, expanding geoeconomic corridors that route Chinese exports and European imports through the Red Sea, and a diplomatic push to present itself as a champion of the Global South. Beijing’s strategy is to secure cheap energy, protect trade routes, and earn political capital without committing troops or large‑scale bases. Illustrative examples include China’s tentative bid for a UAE naval facility—primarily for intelligence, not power projection—its role in brokering the 2023 Saudi‑Iran détente, and its limited mediation attempts in the Israel‑Palestine arena, such as hosting Hamas and Fatah talks. The Red Sea remains a logistical lifeline, with roughly 60% of Chinese exports to Europe transiting the Bab el‑Mandeb before the Houthi disruptions. The implication is that China will continue to leverage economic leverage and quiet diplomacy to shape regional outcomes, while avoiding the costly military entanglements that have plagued the United States. This approach could deepen Beijing’s influence over energy markets and trade routes, subtly reshaping the strategic calculus for both regional actors and Washington.

Original Description

In this episode of Pekingology, CSIS Senior Fellow Henrietta Levin is joined by Aaron Glasserman, an expert on China's Middle East strategy and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Center for the Study of Contemporary China. Aaron and Henrietta unpack what China is really trying to achieve in the Middle East, how China is approaching the U.S. war against Iran, and what this all means for the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Xi.