Open APIs Are Over
Salesforce, Datadog & Epic are building walls. After two decades of flourishing through open APIs & data portability, the software industry’s largest incumbents are locking down. Salesforce restricted Slack’s API1 in May 2025, limiting third-party apps to one API call per minute & fifteen messages per request. Datadog deactivated accounts2 for Deductive AI, a competing observability startup. Epic faces a Texas lawsuit3 accusing it of turning patient records into a “gatekeeping tool.” The pace of software development, as a result of AI, is accelerating, enabling incumbents to broaden their suite & compete with previous partners. Faster execution means more defense from those with established businesses. This is the new normal. Platform businesses have minted billions in the past. Vlocity ($1.33B acquisition)4 & Veeva ($36B market cap)5 built multi-billion dollar businesses on the Salesforce platform. nCino reached a $2.9B market cap6 serving financial services on Salesforce. ServiceMax sold to GE Digital for $915M7. Klaviyo built a $8.8B business8 with 78% of its revenue from Shopify customers. But building on top of a system of record offers less stable ground than it once did. When Salesforce throttles Slack’s API, they’re telegraphing where the value is. When Epic locks down patient records, they’re drawing a map. Incumbents don’t build walls around worthless assets. And they don’t build defenses unless they perceive credible & urgent challengers. AI’s speed enables both startups & incumbents to own a stack end-to-end. That’s offense in an era of walls. Computerworld : Salesforce changes Slack API terms ↩︎ Deductive : Datadog, Thank You for Blocking Us ↩︎ Regulatory Oversight : Texas Takes Aim at Epic ↩︎ TechCrunch : Salesforce grabs Vlocity for $1.33B ↩︎ Google Finance : Veeva Systems (VEEV) ↩︎ Yahoo Finance : nCino (NCNO) ↩︎ TechCrunch : GE Digital snags ServiceMax for $915 million ↩︎ Yahoo Finance : Klaviyo (KVYO) ↩︎
Gross Profit per Token
Meta is acquiring Manus for $2 billion.1 Alongside the announcement, Manus disclosed $100 million in ARR achieved in eight months, 147 trillion tokens processed since launch.2 Can we use those figures to explain the acquisition price? Publicly traded software companies have gross...

Y-Combinator’s Framework for Building a Successful MVP.
Use this GPT prompt stack to validate your startup idea & Template need to raise seed round.

12 Predictions for 2026
Every year I make a list of predictions & score last year’s predictions. 2025 was a good year : I scored 7.85 out of 10. I will release the scoring tomorrow. For today, here are my predictions for 2026 : 1....

How Big Is AI Spending, Really? | Using ChatGPT for Competitive Analysis. | Measuring Real Efficiency in Venture Exits.
How many emails does it take for someone to buy a product? & B2C startup idea validation framework.

Elad Gil’s Framework for Spotting Billion-Dollar Markets Before They Look Big.
How to execute your own Offline Outbound & The right way to choose your pricing model.
The Bifurcation in the AI Market
Despite open-source AI models being 10-100x cheaper, proprietary providers haven’t lost pricing power. OpenRouter’s data reveals a market splitting in two. Over the last year, open-source models’ market share has remained stable around 22-25%, briefly spiking to 35% during the explosive...
The Average Founder Ages 6 Months Each Year
No, founders are not adopting Bryan Johnson’s regimen to reverse aging. Quite the opposite : the average founder raising capital ages six months every year.1 I suspect founder age has been increasing steadily for three reasons. First, venture capital has shifted...
The Toll of Stress on Startup Teams and Its Link to Founder Well-Being
Startup Snapshot, a think tank uncovering the unspoken realities of the entrepreneurial ecosystem, has released its latest report, The Untold Toll (Part 2): Navigating Stress, Wellbeing, and Burnout in Startup […] The post The Toll of Stress on Startup Teams and...
The Two Context Databases Powering Enterprise AI
Enterprises learned a lesson from cloud data warehouses. They handed over both data & compute, then watched as the most strategic asset in their business, how they operate, became someone else’s leverage, which created an opportunity for Iceberg. Fool me once… Leaders...
The AI Value Gap : Where Does the $7,000 Per Seat Go?
A new study from OpenAI shows AI saves the average white-collar worker 54 minutes per day. Where does all that value go? BLS data shows median weekly earnings for full-time workers hit $1,165 in Q3 2024, or $60,580 annually. Across 2,080...
Streaming Comes Into the Fold
Streaming is the next category to consolidate within the modern data stack. IBM announced its intent to acquire Confluent. The deal values Confluent at $11.1 billion, or 10.0x LTM revenue. Confluent commands more than 40% of the Fortune 500 as customers...
Coming Soon: Harry Stebbings on the State of Venture
Venture, AI, and capital are being rewritten in real time. Join us to understand where the market is actually headed.

How to Build an Investor CRM (With Template) | The Four Product Discovery Models: Where Your Company Really Operates.
Why 95% of Enterprise AI Investments Fail & VC Jobs
Top 10 Posts of 2025
While OpenAI signed $1.15 trillion in compute contracts through 2035, DeepSeek trained a frontier model for $6 million. This was 2025’s central question : are we building on bedrock or quicksand? The top 10 posts of 2025 examined some of these...

The Metric that Predicts AI Product Success. | Why AI Coding Assistants May Slow You Down. | How to Actually Name Your Startup.
The shocking reality of AI funding & Growth of US VC ecosystem
20VC Newsletter - 30th November 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.

How to Do User Research without Users: The Synthetic User Guide. | The Truth About ChatGPT Enterprise Adoption.
Unicorns are back: what founders must understand right now & VC Jobs
Private Equity : The New Distribution Channel for AI Startups
Private equity firms have emerged as the newest distribution channel for AI startups. While public companies have decreased from 6,639 in 2000 to 3,550 in 2024, PE-owned companies in the US have grown from 1,950 to 14,300. The rate of growth...
The Scaling Wall Was A Mirage
Two revelations this week have shaken the narrative in AI : Nvidia’s earnings & this tweet about Gemini. The AI industry spent 2025 convinced that pre-training scaling laws had hit a wall. Models weren’t improving just from adding more compute during...

20VC Newsletter - 16th November 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.

Y-Combinator Pitch Deck Framework: Access 50+ Decks That Raised Over $450M.
Build pitch deck using Y-Combinator framework.

How Big Is AI Spend, Really? | What 180M Job Postings Reveal About AI’s Impact. | VC's Turning Into a Network-Effect Business.
The state of GTM in 2025 & You should know this before signing a Shareholders Agreement.

The Growth Strategy Most Startups Overlook: Engineering-as-Marketing. | The Smartest Startup Pivot in Recent AI History.
Free tools quietly built billion-dollar companies? & VC Jobs

It’s Not Just You. Everyone Is Paying a Lot More for AI Engineers. Especially Equity.
"While equity has skyrocketed across all levels, salary increases have been much more modest"

The only AI Prompt Guide You Need for Idea Validation & Competitor Research. | Why VCs Pull Back From China AI Investment ?
How to navigate PMF in Vertical SaaS (stage by stage) & How many emails does it take for someone to buy a product?

If You Ever Think "Should I Fire This Person?" Even Once ... Well, Then It's Time
"If you’re genuinely thinking “Should I fire this person?” it means they’ve crossed the line from “good but needs development” to “this isn’t working.”
Are We Being Railroaded by AI?
Just how much are we spending on AI? Compared to other massive infrastructure projects, AI is the sixth largest in US history, so far. World War II dwarfs everything else at 37.8% of GDP. World War I consumed 12.3%. The New Deal...

The Three Sales Frameworks Every Early-Stage Founder Needs. | Template-Tips: Everything You Need to Raise a Successful Seed Round
When Waitlists Work - Trap? & VC Jobs

The Top 10 Mistakes I See In The VP of Sales Hiring Process
"The best VPs of Sales always have at least 2-3 great folks lined up to come with their to their next role. Just ask. Ask who those 2-3 are."
20VC Newsletter - 2nd November 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.

Y-Combinator’s New Batch Doubles Down on Production-Ready AI, Unconventional Tactics for Validating Your Startup Ideas & Measuring True Efficiency in Venture Exits.
Fundraising size impacts your startup’s unicorn odds & What founders should really know about compensation?
It only Took 20 Years, but the Strategic Management Society Now Believes the Lean Startup Is a Strategy
I’ve always thought of myself as a practitioner. In the startups I was part of, the only “strategy” were my marketing tactics on how to make the VP of Sales the richest person in the company. After I retired, I...

From Zero to Eight Figures in 18 Months: Decagon CEO’s Playbook for AI-Native SaaS Growth. And Why They Partnered With Accel
"What's key: weekly touchpoints with every customer. Every single one."

40+ Investor Databases for Easier VC Outreach (Free Access) | How to Execute Your Own Offline Outbound.
The right way to choose your pricing model & VC Jobs
Mazama Energy Unveils the World’s Hottest Enhanced Geothermal System: A 629 °F (331 °C)…
### **Mazama Energy Unveils the World’s Hottest Enhanced Geothermal System: A 629 °F (331 °C) Breakthrough at Newberry, Oregon, Ideal for Powering AI**  Mazama operations in Newberry, Oregon Almost all geothermal startups
20VC Newsletter - 26th October 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.
Product-Market Fit Is No Longer Static
There’s this notion that product market fit is this binary condition that once you pass the gate, you’re done. And that’s no longer the case. Product market fit is like United Miles. You continue to fly to maintain 1K. And...

The Bear Roars: Dan and Brad
I recently joined Dan Caruso on The Bear Roars podcast, and our conversation brought one thing into focus: we’re living through a shift that’s not just changing what we build—it’s […] The post The Bear Roars: Dan and Brad appeared first...

The Forecast Model Every Startup Needs (with Free Template). | VC & Startup Jobs.
Forecast model with excel sheet template..
20VC Newsletter - 19th October 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.

How Founders Should Think About Runway: A Guide From Sequoia Capital
Pricing your product based on costs & Spotify’s DIBB framework.
The Data Pendulum Swings to Consolidation
Why was the Fivetran-dbt merger all but inevitable? Fivetran & dbt Labs announced their merger yesterday. The all-stock deal combines two companies into an entity approaching $600 million in ARR. The beauty of the modern data stack was the explosion in choice....
20VC Newsletter - 12th October 2025
Here are the transcripts and top takeaways from 20VC episodes released this last week.
Is Token Consumption Growth Slowing Down?
Philip Schmid dropped an astounding figure1 yesterday about Google’s AI scale : 1,300 trillion tokens per month (1.3 quadrillion - first time I’ve ever used that unit!). Now that we have three data points on Google’s token processing, we can chart...

How Saboteurs Threaten Innovation–And What to Do About It
This article first appeared in First Round Review. “Only the Paranoid Survive” Andy Grove – Intel CEO 1987-1998 I just had an urgent “can we meet today?” coffee with Rohan, an ex-student. His three-year-old startup had been slapped with a notice...