Does This Market Rhyme with 1926, 1928 or Even 1929?

Geopolitical tension in the Persian Gulf intensified after Iran launched drones and missiles at a UAE oil terminal, sending Brent crude to a July contract high of $115 per barrel and nudging WTI above $112. The sudden supply shock reinforced the U.S. dollar’s role as a de‑facto petro‑currency, boosting its strength against most peers while keeping risk‑off sentiment muted. Traders watched the Strait of Hormuz closely, aware that any further escalation could ripple through energy markets and influence inflation‑linked policy decisions worldwide.

Meanwhile, AI‑centric equities continued to dominate headlines. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2% even as the broader market chased record highs, reflecting a tug‑of‑war between speculative tech enthusiasm and tightening monetary conditions. Palantir’s earnings surprised with an 84.7% year‑over‑year revenue surge, yet a forward price‑to‑earnings multiple of 108 underscores the lofty expectations still required for valuation justification. AMD’s upcoming results, Novo Nordisk’s pivotal drug launch, and other heavyweight releases such as Disney and Uber add layers of earnings‑driven volatility, prompting analysts to draw cautious parallels with the speculative excesses of 1929’s February‑to‑September bubble.

Risk sentiment gauges also featured prominently. Bitcoin breached the $80,000 threshold, eyeing the $100,000 psychological barrier, while the dollar index tested sub‑98 support levels. The Japanese Ministry of Finance’s yen‑intervention, amounting to roughly $30 billion, has capped USD/JPY near 157‑160, limiting further dollar‑yen appreciation. In the Antipodes, the RBA’s third consecutive hike to 4.35% surprised markets with a more cautious forward outlook, nudging Australian yields higher. Upcoming data—including the ISM services survey, March JOLTS, and Friday’s jobs report—will shape the narrative as investors weigh energy shocks, AI hype, and historical market cycles for the weeks ahead.