Blog•Feb 18, 2026
Heads Up: US Treasury to Release TIC Data Later Today
The US Treasury will publish its latest International Capital (TIC) data, showing foreign investors holding a record $9.36 trillion of Treasury securities. China’s holdings slipped to roughly $683 billion, the lowest level since 2008, while Japan remains the top holder with about $1.2 trillion. The report highlights a structural shift: private investors—hedge funds, pension funds, and asset managers—bought $158 billion in November, more than double the purchases by official institutions. Despite de‑dollarisation talk, Treasuries stay essential, though gold now tops them in central‑bank reserves.
By investingLive – Asia-Pacific News Wrap
Blog•Feb 17, 2026
Getting Paid to Wait for Deleveraging
The episode examines a REIT's high‑yield bond, which trades above 7% with a 340‑basis‑point spread despite solid market fundamentals and improving leasing. Management is actively selling $280‑300 million of assets, using proceeds to cut debt and potentially buy back bonds, positioning...
By Fixed Income Beacon
Blog•Feb 17, 2026
Indian Banks: From Credit Provision to Liquidity Provision?
India’s corporate funding is increasingly sourced domestically as the yield gap with US Treasuries narrows to about 2.5%, eroding the cost advantage of foreign‑currency debt. Deepening private‑credit markets now finance even near‑investment‑grade borrowers, exemplified by a recent $3.4 billion rupee‑denominated deal....
By Prof. Jayanth R. Varma’s Financial Markets Blog
Blog•Feb 10, 2026
Bonds Taking a Pre-NFP Lead-Off
Bond yields pulled back toward the 4.1‑4.2% band after weak retail‑sales data, reversing a brief flirtation with the 4.30% ceiling on the 10‑year Treasury. The market is now pricing in a softer labor outlook ahead of the February non‑farm payrolls...
By Mortgage News Daily – MBS Live Commentary
Blog•Feb 9, 2026
AM Resilience After Overnight Weakness
Overnight Treasury markets experienced a sharp, high‑volume move despite a relatively narrow price range. The volatility was triggered by news that Chinese regulators asked banks to limit their exposure to U.S. Treasuries. Domestic traders quickly digested the information, and by...
By Mortgage News Daily – MBS Live Commentary
Blog•Feb 9, 2026
Private Credit Defaults
The episode dissects private‑credit defaults, arguing that most defaults are driven by borrower‑specific (idiosyncratic) factors rather than systemic risk, which the media often exaggerates for clicks. Data from the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index shows realized losses remain well below historic...
By Larry Swedroe on Substack
Blog•Feb 9, 2026
Repriced Risk in a Rebuilt Regional Bank Subordinated Floater
The episode examines a regional bank that has rebuilt its balance sheet, achieving profitability, capital ratios above 12%, and improved liquidity after addressing over $12 billion of higher‑risk loans. It highlights that despite these fundamentals, the bank’s subordinated floating‑rate notes are...
By Fixed Income Beacon
Blog•Feb 9, 2026
Gradual End of Bank Dominance in India
India’s household financial portfolio is shifting away from traditional safe assets toward equities and managed funds. Between March 2021 and March 2025, bank deposits fell from roughly 47.5% to 43.5% of total financial assets, while mutual‑fund and pension holdings rose...
By Prof. Jayanth R. Varma’s Financial Markets Blog
Blog•Feb 6, 2026
Potential Signs of GSE Buying as MBS Outperform
MBS outperformed Treasuries on Feb 6, rising two ticks while 5‑ and 10‑year yields fell about six ticks. The move suggests possible GSE buying despite no official data. Consumer sentiment posted 57.3, beating forecasts, and inflation expectations eased to 3.5% for...
By Mortgage News Daily – MBS Live Commentary
Blog•Feb 6, 2026
Waiting on Next Week's Data
Friday's economic calendar was thin, with only the Consumer Sentiment report standing out. Treasury yields edged slightly higher but stayed near the 4.20% threshold, keeping bond markets largely unchanged. The previous day's disappointing labor figures have heightened market attention on...
By Mortgage News Daily – MBS Live Commentary
Blog•Feb 5, 2026
Stronger Start Thanks to Employment Data
U.S. Treasury bonds edged higher in early trading on Thursday, with gains accelerating after 7 a.m. ET. The market reacted to two labor‑market releases: the Challenger job‑cut data at 7:30 a.m. and the more impactful weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., the latter...
By Mortgage News Daily – MBS Live Commentary
Blog•Feb 4, 2026
The BlackRock TCPC Story
The episode dissects BlackRock TCPC’s recent 19% NAV drop, revealing that the loss was driven by six concentrated positions heavily weighted in second‑lien loans and equity rather than first‑lien senior debt. The host contrasts this risky capital‑structure positioning and volatile...
By Larry Swedroe on Substack
Blog•Feb 4, 2026
Waiting on ISM Services as Early Data Fails to Inspire
ADP's employment numbers released at 8:15 a.m. ET came in softer than analysts expected, yet Treasury yields barely moved. Fifteen minutes later, the Treasury Department posted its quarterly financing estimates, which were in line with prior forecasts but warned that borrowing...
By Mortgage News Daily – MBS Live Commentary
Blog•Feb 3, 2026
The Hidden Cost Of Investment Income
The episode explores a new Longview Research Partners analysis that challenges the traditional view of bond interest and REIT dividends as portfolio positives, showing that forced investment income can erode over 1% of after‑tax wealth for high‑net‑worth investors. The hosts...
By Larry Swedroe on Substack
Blog•Feb 2, 2026
Scarce Reserves
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Warsh is pushing to restart quantitative tightening, signaling a shift toward shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet. This move comes even as the Fed recently expanded its holdings to ease strains in the funding market. Warsh’s...
By Fed Guy