Distressed Exchanges Lead to Hard Defaults, Not Chapter 11
Moody’s on distressed exchanges: > 35%+ end in hard default or another rx > Credit events after a rx typically hit within 3 years > 65% of last year’s defaults were distressed exchanges, not Ch. 11 The 2023 cohort is up next
5‑Year Yields Overpriced Amid Fed Pause or Hike
A bit too much anchoring to 3% neutral. I think 5s are too expensive for a Fed that is on pause and/or hiking in the next year
Rising Short-Term Rates Trigger Bond Sell‑off Amid Iran War
What drove the bond sell-off? Front-end interest rates are up sharply everywhere (blue), but long-term yields were - until this week - unresponsive (red). This disconnect was unsustainable and - as war with Iran drags on - markets capitulated this...
U.S. Debt Servicing Costs Set to Surge Over 15 Years
🇺🇸A sharp rise in U.S. government debt servicing costs is projected over the next 15 years. https://t.co/tq9kbPjquv
Zero‑rate Era Produced Massive Bond Issuance Worldwide
Where are they now? Globally, bonds issued when interest rates were near ZERO, 2015–2021, though total global long-term fixed-income issuance (per SIFMA) was higher (~$158 trillion cumulatively). - Grok https://t.co/XCQZy1Rgxn
Bond Market Tests New Fed Chair with 2007‑High Yields
The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.197% today — the highest since July 2007. Kevin Warsh gets sworn in as Fed Chair on Friday. That's not a coincidence. The bond market is testing him before he gets the keys. 🧵
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 20‑Year High on Inflation
Bloomberg: "Yields on the US Treasury’s longest-dated bond rose to the highest level in almost two decades as investor concerns mount that accelerating inflation will force central bankers to raise interest rates." #economy #markets #bonds
US Agg Forward Yield Peaks at 8.
Janney ISG's Real Yields model is noting the highest 12m forward return for the US Agg since Jan 2025: 8.6% (+/-1sd 7.8 - 9.3%) https://t.co/bNbKSL4Mad
30‑Year Treasury Yields Hit 2007 High, Stocks Uncertain
US 30-year Treasury yields just tapped their highest levels since July 2007. Not the best backdrop for stocks at highs, but rising rates don't always mean a correction either... $US30Y $SPY $QQQ https://t.co/xKBydmikrV
BoJ Selling Treasuries to Fund Yen Support?
Is the Bank of Japan selling treasuries to use the capital to support the Yen?
30‑Year to Overnight Rate Spread Matches Historical Average
I know peeps love to doom and gloom about it but nothing that unusual about the current rate structure. Here the spread of 30s to overnight rates and its long run average. https://t.co/Tp7ouJMdsl
Rate Hike Hits 30‑yr Treasury Harder than AGG
A 1% rate rise implies a 10.7% annual loss on the 30yr Treasury bond. $TLT $AGG would lose 1.2% These are much softer losses, given higher starting yields, compared to 4-6 years ago. https://t.co/a2m9WEhBuj
China Targets $882 Million Green Bond in Hong Kong
China is seeking to raise as much as 6 billion yuan ($882 million) in a green sovereign bond sale in Hong Kong next week https://t.co/KnRsdhfa5k
Shorter‑term Yields Reveal Future Fed Rate Path
Everyone is talking about UST Yields on 10 Yr Notes (4.607%) and 30 Yr Bonds (5.146%), but they should also start focusing on 2's (4.072%) and 5's (4.257%) which are not just reflecting current Fed Policy, but factoring in what...
UK 10-Year Yield Drops 11bps Since Quad3 High
US Tourists won't see it but UK 10yr Yield is already down -11bps from last week's #Quad3 Cycle High https://t.co/IPAWrZtXrh